2024 Playoff Picture Roundup: One Game Away
14 min read
PlaySheet, By Playoff Predictors
Everyone excited for Wild Card Weekend? I know I am. I think the matchup I’m particularly intrigued by is the Miami Dolphins traveling up to Buffalo, to see if Tua can’t break their losing streak in cold weather against one of the top teams in the league. The Baltimore Ravens having to go on the road to take on Houston is intriguing itself, and we’ll be interested to see if Detroit can recover from losing the division to take on those scrappy Atlanta Falcons in the Monday Night game. Oh, and you have to love a divisional rematch, like the Commanders going up to play the Eagles, and Packers-Rams is another battle in the McVay coaching tree. Good stuff all around.
What? None of those games are actually happening? I could have sworn, let me take a look at my notes…
Oh, of course, I see what I’ve done. I flipped every Week 18 game and got the results backwards! How embarrassing; I made the same mistake last year. We apologize for the mistake.
Fourteen teams make the playoffs, which mean 18 do not – and often times, it’s one result, or even one play, that’s the difference between playing in January and staying home; between coaches being lauded and fired. Had Week 18 fallen a little differently, we’d be talking about the Dolphins, Falcons or Bengals as playoff teams; it takes relatively little effort to get them into the playoffs.
And then you have teams like the Giants and Titans who, uh, require a bit more elbow grease.
For our last article of the year, let’s look at the 18 non-playoff teams, and see how easy it is to flip results and turn each into a playoff team. Better luck next year, guys!
One Game Out
Because this year’s playoff races were rather anticlimactic, only three teams finished one game short of missing the playoffs – flip one game, and they would have been in.
Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
This is the second year in a row Seattle has ended up on the wrong end of a tiebreaker for a playoff spot, and the third year they’ve been involved in one. Flipping any Seahawks game from a win to a loss breaks their tie with the 10-7 Rams and gives them the NFC West title. What’s the one that got away? While many Seahawks fans rue losing to the Giants at home, it’s the 27-24 loss to the Vikings in Week 16 that’s arguably the easiest to flip. The Seahawks were winning, 24-20 late in the fourth quarter, until Sam Darnold stepped up under pressure, avoided a sack, and found Justin Jefferson streaking downfield.
The Seahawks would get the ball back — twice, actually — but settled for a 60-yard missed field goal and a desperation Geno Smith deep shot which was intercepted. Flip this result, and Seattle is preparing to host Washington this weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
Any game flipped for Cincinnati gets them into the postseason. They were only knocked out on the final day of the season because Denver did what they couldn’t — beat the Chiefs. Kansas City had a number of improbable escapes through the first three quarters of the season, and the one over the Bengals has stuck in their fans’ craws ever since. Cincinnati was winning 25-23 with less than a minute to go on in the game, and found themselves defending a 4th-and-16 with the ball on the Kansas City 35. A stop here, and the Bengals walk out with a big win over the defending champs. Mahomes found Rashee Rice deep, with Daijahn Anthony in coverage, and, well…
There’s no doubt that Anthony arrived a hair too early, and it’s pass interference by the letter of the law, but we’ve seen similar hits go uncalled in the past. And it was a huge call, too — it put the Chiefs in range for Harrison Butker to launch a 50+-yard game-winning field goal at the buzzer; Kansas City only gained four more yards after the penalty, so it was basically all this DPI that cost them the game. If the refs swallow their whistles, the Bengals are getting ready to play the Bills right now in a battle between two MVP quarterbacks.
Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
The Colts are also only one game out of the playoffs, but there is a catch — it has to specifically be a game against the AFC South-winning Texans or the seventh-seed Broncos to get them in, as they need to run down a 10-7 team. ‘Fortunately’ for the Colts, they lost three games to those teams — Week 1 and Week 8 to Houston and Week 15 to Denver, so we have plenty of options to choose from to actually get the Colts in.
The Denver game was a blowout, 31-13, but both Texans games were one-score affairs. Both those games were closer on paper than in reality, with Indianapolis scoring a late fourth-quarter touchdown in each game to make things a one-score game, but at least that gives us something to go on. Week 1 was the more competitive of the two games, even if Houston did out-gain Indianapolis 417-303. There’s not really one moment you can flip here; Anthony Richardson scored a touchdown with 2:14 left but Houston was able to drain the rest of the clock to preserve the 29-27 victory thanks to some hard Joe Mixon running. For the most part, though, the Colts were just unable to prevent a few deep bombs from C.J. Stroud.
But there’s a world where the Colts break up Stroud’s pass to Nico Collins at the two minute warning, or stop Mixon from going for nine yards off tackle with 1:48 left, get the ball back, and watch Anthony Richardson hit another moonball for the win. It’s less likely than the Seattle or Cincinnati cases, but it was possible, and that would have had the AFC South-champion Colts preparing to host the Chargers this weekend — they would have split the season series with Houston and had identical division records, leaving their 8-4 conference record as the tiebreaker that gets them in.
Two Games Out
Only three teams were only one game away this year, which is the smallest number since I started tracking. In fact, the gap between the haves and have-nots were large enough that only three teams ended two games short of the postseason.
Atlanta Falcons (8-9)
Despite having a playoff scenario in Week 18, the Falcons still needed two results to go their way to catch the 10-7 Buccaneers. We can’t flip just one game, because the Falcons already beat the Buccaneers twice; that’s the whole reason they were alive to begin with. The good news there is that we can flip any two games to have Atlanta catch Tampa Bay; they had the tiebreaker sewn up by Week 8. Now, we just need to find two close losses.
Atlanta had a number of one-score losses throughout the season. Week 1 against Pittsburgh (18-10) might well have ended up a win if they hadn’t turned the ball over three times, with Donte Jackson’s interception with 2:49 left and the Falcons trailing by just five being the dagger.
But they did commit those turnovers, and Pittsburgh out gained them on offense anyway. so it’s fair to say they were at least a little outplayed. Not so much in Week 13 against the Chargers. Atlanta’s defense held Justin Herbert and company to just 187 yards of offense, while the Falcons marched up and down the field for 350 yards of their own. The problem? Four turnovers, with Kirk Cousins throwing four picks, each more painful than the last. Even a three-interception day probably give Atlanta the win here, so this one stings a lot — a game they really should have won. If only they had used a high draft pick on a new quarterback…
Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
We can’t flip any two games to get Arizona into the playoffs, because they went 1-3 against the Seahawks and Rams, and 0-2 against Seattle specifically. We have two options — either we flip one of the two games against Seattle and any other game so the Cardinals beat out the Rams on common opponents, or we beat the Packers and Rams to get Arizona over the Rams in total record and over Green Bay via head-to-head and take that #7 seed.
Green Bay throttled Arizona 34-13, and the two Seattle losses were by double digit points as well, so it’s a bit tricky to actually find the ideal two. The easiest game to flip is probably the Week 12 Seattle game, a 16-6 loss at Lumen Field that saw Arizona pass up a 4th-and-goal from the Seattle four in favor of a field goal to make the score 13-6, Seattle. A touchdown there, and a 13-10 game, and you might have something; they ended up missing a (meaningless) 47-yard field goal as time expired that would have meant a lot more in a tighter game. But Seattle wasn’t doing much, either, and if it wasn’t for a Coby Bryant pick-six, well…
We would still need to find a second win for Arizona, but that’s simpler — look no further than their 23-22 loss to Minnesota the very next week. Once again, fourth downs did them in, but in this case, it was the Vikings converting a 4th-and-5 late on what ended up being the game-winning touchdown drive that really did them in; stop Justin Jefferson just one time, and the Cards are victorious.
Miami Dolphins (8-9)
Like with Arizona, it can’t be any two games flipped that gets Miami in; they would still theoretically have troubles with Pittsburgh’s 7-5 conference record and Denver’s 5-1 record in common games in any big tie at 10-7. But a couple AFC wins will do it for us without too much fuss, and there are two prime ones in the middle of the year.
Some better backup play during Tua Tagovailoa’s absence would have been a huge help — the Colts didn’t exactly put on a show in their Week 7 16-10 win. Had Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle combined to do more than go 15-26 for 161 yards, they probably win that one. Heck they probably still win that one without some fumbles — like this Raheem Mostert one in the third quarter, which led to Indy’s game-tying touchdown.
In fact, Mostert fumbles cost the Dolphins multiple times. He had another costly one two weeks later against the Bills in what was ultimately a 30-27 loss, which led to a Bills touchdown that gave them a 12-10 lead midway through the third quarter. But Miami fought back that time with Tagovailoa under center, both teams trading touchdowns back and forth. The score was tied with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and what’s Buffalo going to do, kick a franchise-record 61-yard field goal for the win? What are the odds of that!
Oh.
Flip those two results and the 10-7 Dolphins with their 8-4 conference record are the #6 seed and getting a rematch with Buffalo this weekend.
Three Games Out
Only three teams were three games out, too — that’s right, fewer than 10 teams were less than four games away from punching their playoff tickets. Last year, 13 teams were in these three sections; this was truly a year of haves and have-nots. We’re getting down to teams where you have to really stretch to find their path to the playoffs, but in the weak NFC West and NFC South divisions, opportunities were there to be had, but some teams simply could not capitalize.
San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
The 49ers collapsed down the stretch as injuries and fatigue did them in, but they were hanging on to the fringes of the playoff race for quite some time. Their real killer was going 1-5 against the division, and those are the results we would need to change to get them in. Three different games there involved the 49ers’ defense collapsing late in the fourth quarter, a recurring theme which has led to Nick Sorsensen’s reassignment. That includes the 20-17 loss to Seattle in Week 11, where Geno Smith marched Seattle down the field in the two-minute drill and scrambled for the game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left, the 24-23 loss to Arizona in Week 5, where Kyler Murray led a go-ahead field goal drive with less than two minutes to go and Brock Purdy threw an interception on the last-gasp response drive, and the 27-24 loss to the Rams in Week 3, where the 49ers’ special teams allowed a 38-yard punt return and De’Vondre Campbell committed a 25-yard pass interference to move the Rams into game-winning field goal range.
Flip the results, and the 9-8 49ers win the three-way tie atop the division thanks to their head-to-head success against LA and Seattle, and get to play the Vikings this weekend.
Carolina Panthers (5-12)
Surprised to see a five-win team here? So am I. But because the NFC South was so bad, it’s possible! The Panthers need three specific games to flip to get them in — the Week 6 loss to Atlanta, the Week 13 loss to Tampa Bay and the Week 17 loss to Tampa Bay. That would put Carolina and Tampa Bay atop the division at 8-9, and the head-to-head sweep would get Carolina in. Not pretty, but effective.
This was obviously a very longshot, as the early-season Panthers were a disaster — they improved a little late, but they weren’t hanging with the top of the division at the beginning of the year. They lost 38-20 to Atlanta, and that final score is flattering. They also no-showed Week 17, getting blown out 48-14 in Tampa Bay, so flipping those games would have required more than changing the result of a play or two. Ah, but the Week 13 games was tight, with Carolina taking Tampa to overtime. They even managed to stop the Buccaneers once, even if they fumbled on their ensuing drive. Twice was too much, though, as Rachaad White ran Tampa into game-winning field goal territory.
New Orleans Saints (5-12)
The Saints are in the same boat as the Panthers — they need to flip their two Tampa Bay losses and their one Atlanta loss, which would get them to 8-9 and give them the head-to-head sweep over the Buccaneers to get them in. The NFC South was not, as it turns out, the most high-voltage division in football in 2024.
The Week 6 Buccaneers game was an absolute shellacking to the tune of 51-27, and Week 18’s loss to Tampa wasn’t much better — a 27-19 loss where the Saints were in it for a bit, but saw the Buccaneers just enforce their will on them in the fourth quarter. The Week 4 Falcons loss, however? That was back when New Orleans still had hope, and a 26-24 loss to Atlanta wasn’t nearly enough to crush that hope; that would come later. The Saints took a 24-23 lead with a minute left in regulation, but a Paulson Adebo pass interference call moved Atlanta to the very edge of field goal range. Three incomplete Kirk Cousins passes meant it was up to Younghoe Koo to launch a 58-yarder for the win…
A career-long kick to win the game. Hats off, one supposes.
…And Out.
One game can be easily flipped. Two might just be a stretch of bad play. Three games can, if you squint, be a reasonable path to the postseason. But our last five teams were so far out that they would need to flip at least a full month’s worth of games to sniff the postseason. That’s getting into crazy person territory, and not worth digging too far into – but here are the quick versions anyway; the easiest paths for the absolute bottom feeders to make the postseason.
Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
Week 9 v. Atlanta (27-21)
Week 11 v. Houston (34-10)
Week 14 v. Cincinnati (27-20)
Week 18 v. Washington (23-19)
Result: The 11-6 Cowboys win the #6 seed, beating the Commanders thanks to their head-to-head sweep and the Packers due to their 7-5 conference record.
New York Jets (5-12)
Week 4 v. Denver (10-9)
Week 8 v. New England (25-22)
Week 13 v. Seattle (26-21)
Week 14 v. Miami (32-26)
Result: The 9-8 Jets win the #7 seed, beating the Bengals and Broncos due to their 8-4 conference record.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
Week 1 v. Miami (20-17)
Week 2 v. Cleveland (18-13)
Week 4 v. Houston (24-20)
Week 13 v. Houston (23-20)
Result: The 8-9 Jaguars win the #4 seed, beating the Texans and Colts due to their 3-1 record in head-to-head games.
Chicago Bears (5-12)
Week 3 v. Indianapolis (21-16)
Week 8 v. Washington (18-15)
Week 11 v. Green Bay (20-19)
Week 13 v. Detroit (23-20)
Week 17 v. Seattle (6-3)
Result: The 10-7 Bears win the #7 seed, beating the Packers due to their head-to-head sweep.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
Week 1 v. LA Chargers (22-10)
Week 6 v. Pittsburgh (32-13)
Week 8 v. Kansas City (27-20)
Week 12 v. Denver (29-19)
Week 15 v. Atlanta (15-9)
Result: The 9-8 Bears win the #6 seed, beating the Steelers via their head-to-head victory and the Broncos via their 3-3 divisional record.
New England Patriots (4-13)
Week 2 v. Seattle (23-20)
Week 9 v. Tennessee (20-17)
Week 12 v. Miami (34-15)
Week 13 v. Indianapolis (25-24)
Week 15 v. Arizona (30-17)
Week 16 v. Buffalo (24-21)
Result: The 10-7 Patriots win the #7 seed, beating the Broncos via their 7-5 conference record.
Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Week 3 v. NY Giants (21-15)
Week 4 v. Las Vegas (20-16)
Week 6 v. Philadelphia (20-16)
Week 7 v. Cincinnati (21-14)
Week 13 v. Denver (41-32)
Week 17 v. Miami (20-3)
Result: The 9-8 Browns win the #7 seed, beating the Broncos via their head-to-head win.
Tennessee Titans (3-14)
Week 1 v. Chicago (24-17)
Week 2 v. NY Jets (24-17)
Week 6 v Indianapolis (20-17)
Week 14 v. Jacksonville (10-6)
Week 17 v. Jacksonville (20-13)
Week 18 v. Houston (23-14)
Result: The 9-8 Colts win the the #4 seed, beating the Texans via their head-to-head sweep.
New York Giants (3-14)
Week 2 v. Washington (21-18)
Week 4 v. Dallas (20-15)
Week 6 v. Cincinnati (17-7)
Week 9 v. Washington (27-22)
Week 10 v. Carolina (20-17)
Week 14 v. New Orleans (14-11)
Week 18 v. Philadelphia (20-13)
Result: The 10-7 Giants win the #7 seed, beating the Commanders and Seahawks thanks to their head-to-head wins.
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