Week 17 Playoff Picture: The Strength of Victory

It’s Week 17 – let’s talk strength of victory.

Strength of victory is the most complicated tiebreaker that actually comes up – we’ve never had to dip all the way down to the forbidden zone of conference rank in points scored and allowed. For most of the year, it’s something we sit back and idly track in the background, noting that there are some situations where it could come up, should everything fall just right. But actually parse it out? That can wait until late December, when we’re sure it will become relevant.

Well, it’s late December, and it has very much abruptly become relevant. There is one SoV tiebreaker still floating out there, and it could get decided in Week 17.

Here are the NFC West scenarios as they currently stand, excluding ties:

In six of them, either the Rams or Seahawks win outright, so we don’t need to use tiebreakers. In the scenario where both teams lose in Week 17, but Seattle wins the head-to-head game in Week 18, then Seattle wins the division as their 4-2 divisional record is better than the Rams’ 3-3. Los Angeles, in that case, would be hurt by being swept by the Cardinals, sending them packing.

But if, instead, both teams win in Week 17, the Rams get that win over Arizona. That moves them to 4-2 in the division, tying them with a victorious Seattle. Both teams would be 6-6 in conference and have identical common games records, too. That leaves us no alternative but to dip down to strength of victory to find a winner.

So let’s break it down! Who has the advantage, and how will it be decided?

The Rams, in this scenario, would have beaten: San Francisco (x2), Las Vegas, Minnesota, Seattle, New England, New Orleans, Buffalo, NY Jets and Arizona.

The Seahawks, in this scenario, would have beaten: Denver, New England, Miami, Atlanta, San Francisco, Arizona (x2), NY Jets, Chicago and LA Rams.

Crossing out the duplicates – and each other, as they’d end up with the same record which is sort of the point of going to tiebreakers in the first place – and you get the Rams holding the much more impressive resume. They count the Bills, Vikings, 49ers, Saints and Raiders, with a combined record of 39-36. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have to content themselves with the Broncos, Dolphins, Falcons, Cardinals and Bears, for a combined record of 35-42 – remember, to get to this scenario, we’re assuming both the Bears and Cardinals lose this week so the Rams and Seahawks can get to 10-7. Those extra two losses matter, as it means Seattle’s relevant opponents max out with 43 possible wins, with the Rams maxing out at 49. A six-win gap is a lot to make up in just two weeks.

To make matters even tougher for Seattle, only six of a possible 10 games next week can actually help them out of their SoV mess. The Rams play the Cardinals, and we’re already assuming the LA win for any of this to be relevant. Similarly, the Seahawks play the Bears, which we’ve already assumed they win. And the Saints and Raiders play one another, guaranteeing the Rams one more win; at this point, the guaranteed win is worth more than the loss of a potential second win for the Rams.

The Saints-Raiders game will give the Rams’ relevant opponents their 40th win, meaning they need just four out of the six games to go their way next week to fully lock up the SoV tiebreaker. That would be four of:

• Minnesota (-1) d. Green Bay
• San Francisco (+3.5) d. Detroit
• Cincinnati (-3.5) d. Denver
• Buffalo (-10) d. NY Jets
• Cleveland (+6.5) d. Miami
• Washington (-4) d. Atlanta

That’s a tough ask, but certainly not impossible. If the favorites win each game, then the Rams get exactly four results out of that, which will send them through as NFC West champions. Vikings-Packers is about as close to pick ‘em as you get, as Green Bay has been very, very hot down the stretch, so it’s hard to exactly count that one as in the bag for the Vikings! Even if they don’t get to all four, though, the Rams are set up very well for this particular tiebreaker.

Which makes things interesting for the Seahawks in return. If you assume the SoV tiebreaker is already lost, than Thursday’s Seahawks-Bears game no longer matters. The only way through is beating the Rams in Week 18 and watching them lose to Arizona this week. Dropping a game against Chicago? That either just pushes them further out of first place or means they have to go to a winning divisional tiebreaker rather than winning outright. And with the wildcard no longer in play, either, Seattle could opt to just relax and rest on Thursday. At the very least, giving Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Olu Oluwatini, Derrick Hall and Uchenna Nwosu the day off or a limited workload might be smart – they’re all banged up, and are coming off a short week. Getting healthy and rested for what might be a defacto NFC West championship game may be the path that maximizes their playoff possibility.

Well, that or just forfeiting and sending as many players as can help to Arizona to help beat the Rams this week, but that may not be legal under the current NFL rules. Ah well. We’ll keep dreaming over here.

It’s a holiday, so let’s quickly go through what else is at stake this week at the top of the playoff picture.

AFC #1 Seed

Very simple here – if the Chiefs win on Christmas Day, this is done and dusted and the playoffs go through Arrowhead once more. Ironically, it might be in their best interests to lose. There’s a lot of scenarios where the Ravens are the one winning wildcard team and have to play the #1 seed in the divisional round. The Chiefs would probably prefer it if the Ravens and Bills knocked each other out while they dodged them for a round. Even if they lose, they win – how lucky are the Chiefs this year, my goodness.

AFC North

The second Christmas game may end up being inconsequential here, at least in the AFC North. If Pittsburgh beats Kansas City, than it doesn’t matter if Baltimore wins or loses; they’ll only win the division if they beat the Browns and the Bengals beat the Steelers in Week 18. This is also the case if the Steelers and Ravens both lose on Christmas. So the only way that the December 25th games actually matter in the North is if the Steelers lose and the Ravens win, which would put Baltimore in a fantastic, win-and-in situation in Week 18. Still, maybe not quite as dynamic as the NFL might have hoped.

NFC East

The Commanders stay alive! I mean, they’re almost certainly dead in the division, needing to win out and have the Eagles lose out to take it, but their come-from-behind victory last week means that is still a possibility. The Eagles being the #2 seed seems nearly locked in stone; the surest best in the league. That being said, there’s not only a slim chance they could still lose the division, but a slim chance they could sneak all the way into the #1 seed, too.

That’s not…crazy, though I’d bet against either the Vikings or 49ers beating the Lions from here on out, which would make it a moot point. And speaking of the Lions…

NFC North

If the Lions win out, they’re getting the division, too – they’re #1 or #5 if there are no ties from here on out. The Vikings would love for them to be #5, mind you. They don’t have to beat the Packers this week to make that happen, but if not, they’ll require the banged-up 49ers to beat the Lions on Monday Night to keep things in play for Week 18 – again, not crazy, but better for them to just take care of their own business this week.

NFC South

A Falcons win and a Buccaneers loss means we’re done here with one week to go, in what looked like it would come down to the wire. Tampa’s loss to Dallas really hurts them, but at least they have the easier of the two remaining schedules. Asking Atlanta to knock off Jayden Daniels and company may be a bit too far.

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