Week 13 Playoff Update: Setting the Scene

Is this thing on?

Welcome back to PlaySheet, as we kick ourselves back into gear as the playoff race heats up in earnest. For the rest of the season, we’ll be taking weekly looks at the playoff picture, pointing out the state of the various races, the key games on the upcoming schedule, and the outlandish scenarios that are keeping some of the league’s teams on life support and out of the eliminated pile. We’ve already got this week’s scenarios posted and ready to go for you enjoyment during Thanksgiving weekend.

We’re at an interesting point of the season. Right now, no teams have clinched a playoff berth and no teams have been mathematically eliminated – all 32 teams are technically still in the playoff hunt, albeit in very different situations. Because this is the first article of the year, it makes the most sense just to take the broad temperature of league and set the scene before we start diving into the real nitty-gritty once Thanksgiving is done.

Let’s start with the very basics.

Week 13 Clinches/Eliminations

Week 13 can see three teams possibly clinch playoff spots – the Chiefs, Bills and Lions. It probably won’t happen for Detroit; there’s still too many moving parts, including needing a Jets upset over Seattle and then either a Carolina win over Tampa Bay or both Titans (over Commanders) and Chargers (over Falcons). That will probably have to be deferred a week or two before it’s fully clinched.

The two AFC teams, though, are in much better shape. The Chiefs clinch their spot with a win over the Aiden O’Connell-led Raiders on Black Friday plus either the Broncos or Dolphins losing; they will probably be the first team in. The Bills will likely beat them to being the first team to lock up a division, though, as they pull that feat off with a win over the 49ers on SNF and a Dolphins loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving. I like the odds of both of those scenarios getting punched this week, though both are bound to happen sooner or later regardless.

Four teams can get mathematically eliminated – the Jaguars, Raiders, Patriots and Giants. All four are underdogs this week, and all four are probably out of time. The Giants and Raiders are both out with a loss, so they’ll be racing to be the first team completely eliminated. For Las Vegas, it’s win and survive until Week 14, but the Giants would also have to dodge Commanders and Packers wins. I think that will be a moot point and both teams will get knocked out before Sunday even begins, but the Raiders have the easier path to avoid complete obliteration this week. Both the Patriots and Jaguars would need a loss and help to get knocked out this week, but that help isn’t very difficult to come by – both would need a Chargers win, and then either a Broncos win (for Jacksonville) or one from Denver, Houston or Miami (for New England) to knock them out all the way. I’d pick all four to get sent packing.

But just because a team can’t clinch or be eliminated this week doesn’t mean that they’re in the thick of things. Let’s take a step back and group everyone into tiers on how their playoff chances are going.

Playoff Tiers

Basically In: Eagles, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers

All eight teams are at at least 93% in FTN’s playoff odds, and are vying for seeding more than anything else. That’s not to say there’s nothing interesting here, of course!

That Week 18 Lions-Vikings game could conceivably be for both the bye week and NFC North titles if Detroit slips up somewhere along the way. As it currently stands, if both the Vikings and Lions go undefeated through Week 17, then their final-week matchup doesn’t matter; they’d split the head-to-head series, tie in the division at 5-1, and then the Vikings would lose to Detroit on the common games tiebreaker thanks to their Week 8 loss to the Rams. The Lions control their divisional fate even if they lose one more game the rest of the way, so we’d need to throw a wrench in the works to make that Week 18 game meaningful, but stranger things have happened. And then the Eagles will be lurking around, waiting to try to take the bye week from whichever team leads the North.

You might disagree with putting the Packers this high, but their big win over San Francisco more or less sealed it in my books. Green Bay is a mathematical lock to make the playoffs with any four wins, and two or three probably get them in as well. Their future schedule is no cakewalk, but there’s enough floundering in the midpack of the NFC that I think they’ll get through just fine.

The AFC North is still very much up for grabs as well, with the Week 16 Steelers-Ravens game being the focal point. A Pittsburgh win would very likely wrap the division up for them; that would complete the head-to-head sweep. A Baltimore win puts the ball very much back in their corner; both teams are sitting at .500 in the division but the Steelers still have both their Cincinnati games to get through. Both teams can be fairly confident about playing in January, but an extra home game would be very nice.

And it is an extra home game that they’re playing for, because the AFC bye week appears to be a two-horse race between the Bills and the Chiefs now. Yes, the Steelers could still get back into things because of their Week 17 game against Kansas City, but the combination of the Chiefs’ two-game lead and significantly softer schedule the rest of the way makes that a tough ask for Pittsburgh. Instead, the drama here appears to be whether or not Kansas City can keep their one-game lead over Buffalo the rest of the way. FTN thinks that the Bills have the easier remaining schedule – their average remaining opponent has a DVOA of -5.9% to Kansas City’s -3.8% — and the Chiefs have been playing more like a good wildcard team than a 10-1 juggernaut. Still, the records are what the records are, and the Chiefs just have to match whatever Buffalo does going forward to lock up that #1 seed.

In Good Shape: Falcons, Texans, Chargers

There’s a bit of subjectivity in this group. The Chargers and Texans are both up over 90% in FTN’s playoff odds; the Falcons down at 65%. You could justify maybe setting up a tier with the Packers, Chargers and Texans over here, shunting the Falcons down a level, and splitting this group up. But this feels like a solid group for me – teams that should make the playoffs if they don’t slip up, but teams which are also very capable of slipping up. Maybe that’s just years of watching Chargers and Falcons football that has me concerned; some vibes-based analysis threatening to ruin my objectivity. Still, it feels comfortable grouping these teams together.

Atlanta only has a one-game lead in the NFC South, but their 4-1 division record and banked sweep over Tampa Bay are huge assets in any tiebreaker situation. They don’t just need to get caught; they need to get passed to lose the division. FTN’s calling it 61% for Atlanta, 35% for Tampa, 3.9% for New Orleans and 0.1% for Carolina, and if anything, that’s underselling the Falcons’ chances. Don’t count out the Falcons’ ability to choke a lead away, but having all your tiebreakers locked up before Thanksgiving is a huge asset to have.

The Texans and Chargers need less explanation, with both sitting on two-game leads for their respective most likely playoff spots, the AFC South and #6 seeds respectively. A Texans-Chargers wildcard game is beginning to feel very likely; I’ll sign up for Justin Herbert v. C.J. Stroud, thank you very much.

Leaning In: Broncos

The Broncos still have some work to do to lock their playoff berth up, but seven wins is a great spot to be in the AFC right now – everyone below them is at five wins or fewer. What keeps Denver out of the tier ahead of this is their future schedule, with the Chiefs and Chargers still on the docket and a bye week they can’t use to pull further ahead. Games against Los Angeles and Indianapolis means they have a lot of control over their own fate, and 3-2 likely gets them in, but they’re lacking some of the breathing room the teams ahead of them have. They’re the last team I’d be comfortable saying are more likely to make the playoffs than not, which locks up 12 of the 14 playoff spots, including all seven in the AFC. We’ll likely be doing a lot of seeding scenarios for the AFC down the stretch.

Toss-Up: Buccaneers, Cardinals, Commanders

The two remaining slots not covered in the previous tiers are the NFC West title and the last NFC wildcard slot. The Cardinals are in the best shape for that division title even though the Seahawks are technically in first place in the division at the moment thanks to their head-to-head win last week. Arizona’s future opponents average a -6.9% DVOA; Seattle’s are at 3.7%, and then San Francisco (8.8%) and Los Angeles (6.5%) face significantly larger uphill climbs. Weighted DVOA also claims the Cardinals are the best team in the division – I don’t know if I agree, but a combination of skill and an easy schedule gives them an advantage. It’s just that the division is so tight that it’s hard to feel confident about anyone’s chances here. I still like then 50/50 compared to the other three divisional contenders, but I think everyone’s still alive in the NFC West.

The Commanders looked to have an NFC spot on lockdown a month ago, but the annual Kliff Cliff seems to be kicking into high gear with three straight losses. I think they get back on their winning ways this week, and they likely get in if they just finish 3-2, but I don’t love a schedule that has them taking on the Saints, Eagles and Falcons in three straight weeks – lots of room to stumble. The Buccaneers face a much easier schedule and match them at 5-3 in the conference so far with three games left against Carolina and Dallas, so watch out down the stretch.

Leaning Out: Seahawks, Colts

If someone’s going to break into that AFC picture, I still like Indianapolis more than Miami. FTN calls that more or less a toss-up, with both teams at about 20%, but the Colts have the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC, while the Dolphins have to take on the Packers, Texans and 49ers. The best team the Colts still have to play is the Broncos, and there’s a silver-lining to that cloud – that’s the team they’re chasing down for a wildcard spot, so the possibility of beating them is a benefit in their wildcard hunt. The Dolphins have to hope other teams do their dirty work for them; the Colts can manage on their own. They’ll probably need to go 4-1 with a win over Denver to do it, but that road lies in front of them.

The Seahawks’ win over Arizona is huge, although their two losses in the division could still come back to haunt them when all is said and done. They’re going to need to beat the Cardinals again in two weeks. If they do, they’ll be in pretty good shape, but in a division where everyone’s within a game of one another, I’d be careful about being too confident. Odds are, one of the four teams is going to go on a run, and so Seattle better be planning on 4-2 at a bare minimum to go to the postseason.

In Trouble: Dolphins, Rams, 49ers.

The 49ers and Rams are both one game behind the Seahawks and Cardinals, so they have to be a slot down. The Rams are in a significantly better position, though, because the 49ers have screwed their tiebreakers over something awful. Their 1-3 divisional record basically means they’ll have to be a full win above anyone else in the division, and they have to do it while still playing the Bills and Lions (and the frisky Dolphins!) the rest of the way. I still believe that a healthy 49ers team (so, not the one that faced the Packers) is arguably the best team in the division, but they have to not only be a full game or two better than all their opponents, they have to do it against the toughest schedule of anyone in the NFC West. The 49ers are either the most alive dead team or the most dead alive team, depending on your point of view. I do think they win the division if they beat ARI, LAR, MIA and CHI, so long as the Cardinals slip up against the Rams, but that’s a big ‘if’ at this point.

Both the Dolphins and Rams aren’t in win-or-go-home mode yet, but they probably have to go 5-1 to realistically make it. It’s a tough ask.

Basically Out: Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Raiders, Titans

They may not be fully dead yet, but that’s a full three-eighths of the league that are really already thinking about the draft. Of this group, maybe you could make an argument for the Bengals (FTN playoff odds: 10.7%) or possibly the Saints (7.5%) of going on a late run, but even they are in win-or-go-home mode with six weeks to go. Only seven teams in NFL history have started 4-7 or worse and made the playoffs. Five of them (2023 TB, 2022 JAX, 2014 CAR, 2020 WAS and 2008 SD) won weak divisions, and neither the AFC North nor NFC South really qualify as such this year.

That just leaves the 1995 Chargers and 1996 Jaguars, both of whom went undefeated down the stretch to squeeze in. The Jaguars even turned that momentum into a bit of a run, getting all the way to the AFC Championship before finally giving in. There’s still hope until you’re mathematically knocked out of things. Faint, miniscule hope, but hope notwithstanding.

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