2023 DOOM Index: Another Cincinnati Bengals Slow Start

Week 2 has come and gone, and your favorite team is DOOOOOOMED!

A stutter in Week 1 can be written off as rust, or bad luck, or just a particularly nasty matchup to begin the year. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded the playoffs to 12 teams, 25% of teams that started the year 0-1 ended up making the playoffs anyway. But an 0-2 start? Now you’re down to just 11%, and while that number should be a little higher with the introduction of the seventh seed, it’s still not great.

It’s not just a matter that losing two games probably means you’re not particularly good, on average. It’s that losing two games puts you in a major hole even if you are otherwise a playoff-caliber team. Not only do you find yourself looking up at the rest of the league in the standings, but you’re burning valuable tiebreaker capital while you’re doing it. And heaven help you if you start 0-3, where making the playoffs becomes nearly a once-in-a-generation unicorn squad, with just four teams managing it in the past 33 years.

So, while not all 0-2 teams are created equal, it’s panic bells and red alert for the nine teams that have yet to find their way into the win column this season. All of them are various degrees of DOOMed, and it’s up to us to index to just what degree DOOM has come from them. We’re averaging about one team a year who escapes the clutches of an 0-2 start to make the postseason. Last year, it was the Cincinnati Bengals, recovering from a pair of close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys, who ended up punching their ticket. So, might as well start there again?

Cincinnati Bengals

Current Pulse Predictions: 12-5
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 25.4%

The Bengals have made a habit out of this. Joe Burrow is just 1-7 in his first two games of the season since joining the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt while throwing 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. In his defense, he hasn’t exactly had a normal offseason yet, missing parts of training camp or preseason in each of his first four seasons from a combination of contract issues, COVID and injuries. Still, though, you’d like to see the Bengals get hot off the block one of these years.

This season feels a little more concerning than years past, though. In 2022, the Bengals had lost their first two games by a combined six points, losing to the Steelers in overtime and to the Cowboys on a field goal as time expired. This year, the Bengals were thumped 24-3 by a Browns team that just laid an egg on Monday night, and then found themselves mostly choked out of the game by the Ravens this last week. Offensively, this year’s Bengals are actually better than last year’s model – they have a VOA of -20.7% through two weeks, as opposed to -39.5% a year ago. Defensively, things are a different story, with Cincinnati falling from -8.7% in 2022 all the way to 20.4% to start this season. The secondary has been a real problem, as the loss of Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell and Eli Apple has been very keenly felt. When Cincinnati has been unable to get pressure, the secondary hasn’t held up – and they have not been able to generate any sort of pressure without blitzing, leaving the secondary on even more of an island. Cincinnati’s 16 pressures in the first two weeks isn’t bad, but nearly all of them have come when sending extra men; they have the fifth-most blitzes in the league to this point. Last year, the secondary could cover up when the defense couldn’t get pressure with just four men. That’s not happening this year.

And while the offense and pass protection was actually worse in 2022, now there’s the issue of Joe Burrow’s calf. Burrow re-injured his calf against Baltimore, and was visibly limping by the end of the game. There’s doubt if he’ll be able to play Monday against the Rams. And even if he does play, Cincinnati has been notably tweaking their offense to try to give him more help; finding more ways to get the ball to Joe Mixon and abandoning the empty sets that has allowed them to be so effective in recent years. That should all go back to normal when Burrow is healthy…but when will that be? Whether or not this calf injury actually costs Burrow a start, it’s going to drag on for a while, and the Bengals aren’t the Bengals without him at full strength.

Starting 0-2 with two divisional losses hurts a lot, but this doesn’t feel like a team that’s structurally doomed; they’re struggling with injuries and new players, and should be able to work through things eventually. The question is if they can get things straightened out in time. They probably have to go 10-5 the rest of the way to feel secure about clinching a playoff spot and to have even an outside chance of taking the AFC North. 9-6 likely keeps them in the muck of tiebreakers, and, well, they’ve got some bad ones at the moment. Their immediate future schedule isn’t too tough, with the Rams, Titans, Cardinals and Seahawks on the docket before the bye and the murder’s row of 49ers, Bills, uh, Texans and Ravens. They probably need to get to .500 before the bye to feel confident about their chances, which means going 3-1 over the next month. Can they do it? Sure. But they’d better get Burrow right as quickly as humanly possible, as they’re already digging their hole.

Doom Index: The uneasy feeling of someone watching you when you know you’re alone.

Los Angeles Chargers

Current Pulse Predictions: 10-7
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 28.7%

Of course the Chargers are going to be the ones finding new and exciting ways to be a disaster. Los Angeles is the first team ever to start 0-2 despite scoring 50 points and having no turnovers. They had late leads in both games, and were unable to hold on — Justin Herbert and company have now has 10 losses since 2020 in games where they held a fourth-quarter lead, unsurprisingly the most in the league. If it’s a Chargers losing streak, it has to come with some sort of never-before seen statistical anomaly.

It’s not the offense that is the problem. Yes, Austin Ekeler being out for the foreseeable future limits what Los Angeles can do, and there are the nagging questions about why Herbert and the offense can’t close out games if he’s one of the league’s top passers. You’d like to see Herbert make a play or two when the game is on the line, but the final drives against both Miami and Tennessee sputtered before they could really get going. Those are the kinds of things that separate a Super Bowl contender from a playoff contender, though, not something that normally has you going 0-2. The Chargers have an offensive VOA of 20.5%, third-best in the league; that’s not the real problem here.

The issue is they can’t stop anybody on defense, ranking dead last with a 35.5% defensive DVOA. They’re bad in man coverage, worse in zone, and are just letting their opposition march up and down the field. They’re tied for league-worst with an 11.5 average depth of target against them, and while some of that is half the sample size being Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, they weren’t much better against Tennessee this week! And it’s not just the deep stuff that’s killing them; they’re 31st with an 18.8% DVOA against short passes, as well.

The defense is on Brandon Staley’s shoulders. If his cornerbacks can’t hold up against top receivers – and it gets no easier with Justin Jefferson coming to town – that’s on him. And it’s the same issues they had last year, as well – too many explosive plays given up, a lack of pressure generated, and too many offenses looking like world beaters when they get that Chargers defense in front of them. Staley’s seat has to be the hottest in the league at the moment; an offense this potentially potent shouldn’t be let down by a weak defense when there’s a purported defensive guru calling the shots.

I’m not sure the Chargers’ defensive issues are solvable mid-season, but they don’t have to be totally fixed. If they can just raise to the heady heights of below average, they should be OK. And unlike the Bengals, the Chargers play in a division which hasn’t gotten off to a fast start, and they have not lost a divisional match yet – they have more realistic hopes at 9-8 than Cincinnati does. If they can win the Battle of the Winless Teams this week in Minnesota, ride that momentum into beating a milquetoast Raiders team next week, and get rested during the bye week, they could get right back into the thick of things. Just in time to get pasted by Dallas and Kansas City, but things open back up again from there. This team is too good to not be in the playoff race, but we’ve seen this story before.

Doom Index: The despairing sigh of finding yourself in the third or fourth movie in a horror franchise.

Minnesota Vikings

Current Pulse Predictions: 9-8
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 11.3%

I mean, you can’t say you weren’t warned. The Vikings were a bad team in 2022; one that rode historic and unrepeatable luck to an undeserved playoff berth. They went 11-0 in one-score games last season, three more wins than any other team. That’s not an example of being gutsy or gritty or talented; that’s fluky. And that has come crashing back to Earth with a pair of one-score losses to start the season. Yes, they’ve been unlucky to start 2023; they’re unlikely to lose four fumbles in a game again. But there was just no way that the lucky rabbit’s foot they had going for them a year ago was going to keep working.

No, these Vikings are a year older than their already old team in 2022, and they lost talent this offseason without much in the way of replacements. Justin Jefferson is still amazing, and the Vikings are actually passing the ball just fine, ranking 10th in passing VOA through two weeks. Kirk Cousins is a perfectly acceptable quarterback, and is handling the disaster area that is the injured Minnesota line with as much skill as could reasonably be hoped for. But they can’t run the ball worth a lick, and Philadelphia showed just how weak their front is by running for 259 yards against them on Thursday. Not every team can take advantage of that like the Eagles can, but the Vikings are in for some long, long afternoons if they can’t tackle anyone. They’ve been a little better in the passing game statistically, but I’m not sure that’s not because the Eagles just figured they didn’t have to throw. The Vikings are blitzing a lot and generating some pressure, but they’re not finishing with sacks

Things should get a little better for Minnesota. While ball security is a skill, recovering fumbles isn’t. They’ve put the ball on the ground six times, which is bad, and recovered zero, which is unfortunate. That should balance itself out somewhat over the course of the year. They should also get healthier on both sides of the ball; going down to a third-string tackle and a backup center against the Eagles’ pass rush was a recipe for disaster. But I don’t see a path to a winning season for them, and while 8-9 is likely the bare minimum for a playoff slot in the NFC, even that’s looking shaky for the Vikings with the Lions and Packers looking competent, if not undefeated. No one’s season is dead after just two games, but if Minnesota can’t get a win over the Chargers this weekend, they may be looking down the barrel of 0-5 or worse, knocking them out of the playoff picture before Halloween hits.

Doom Index: Thousands of voices shouting “I told you so!” at high volume.

Denver Broncos

Current Pulse Predictions: 6-11
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 13.8%

Bold claim: the Broncos are not as DOOMed as the Vikings are, at least in the short term. There have been flashes of the old Russell Wilson this season – not enough of them, and not consistent enough to be worth celebrating, but we’ve seen glimpses of what the Broncos hoped they were getting when they gave up their future to let Russell Wilson cook (and grabbed Sean Payton to help provide the menu).

Denver is seventh in offensive VOA. They average 7.3 yards per pass attempt, putting them in the top 10 in the league. They average 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, putting them eighth. There have been plays, drives, even whole quarters where Denver’s offense is ticking. He’s hitting some deep balls again, being decisive with the football – you can chop up a quite decent highlight reel of the Broncos’ offense humming.

You can also dial up plenty of footage of them shooting themselves in the foot. They’re tied for the league lead with 19 penalties, though admittedly that’s hurt them more on defense than offense. They’re slow getting the play in, calling it in the huddle, and lining up properly – they lost multiple timeouts against Washington just trying to get everything sorted, and they’re discussing starting a wristband system and simplifying verbiage to get things running. A quarterback with Wilson’s experience shouldn’t need help simply getting his team in and out of the huddle, but, well, here we are. There are issues in pass protection as well, with Mike McGlinchey not exactly covering himself in glory on his new deal. But a lot of that seems fixable; the effects of a new system bring brought in and everyone still trying to figure things out. It’s worth focusing on the positives here – if Denver’s offense can tick for a drive, or a quarter, or a half, there’s no inherent reason why they can’t keep going all day long. Russ may never be what they thought they were paying for, but he can be OK; a mighty step up from last year. That’s remarkable, considering how many injuries they had at receiver. They may not have the depth or talent to overcome their own mistakes, but they’re good enough that when they play clean, they can be good.

No, if something’s going to DOOM them this year, it’s going to be the defense. Vance Joseph keeps dialing up blitz after blitz, and they’re not getting home. A league-leading 12 defensive penalties keep opposing offenses on the field, extending drive and ending up in points – see the unnecessary roughness call on Justin Simmons against Las Vegas, or Patrick Surtain’s issues with pass interference. The Broncos aren’t good enough to keep giving opposing teams shot after shot at beating them.

They’ll likely right the ship some with the Bears and Jets in weeks 4-5, but they’re probably going to have to win every winnable game if they want to make the playoffs. There’s still time, but keeping things clean is a must.

Doom Index: The slightly acrid smell of something on the stove boiling over.

Carolina Panthers

Current Pulse Predictions: 4-13
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 8.7% entering Monday night

We’re now getting into the teams whose seasons are probably over at this point, barring a sudden and unexpected turnaround. It’s not a matter of fixing a thing or two and getting back on course; it’s a problem of your team not being good enough to begin with.

This was always going to be the case for the Panthers, as Bryce Young is basically getting this year as a learning experience. It wasn’t supposed to be quite this bad, mind you – just 10 points against Atlanta in Week 1, and then 17 points (with eight gifted against a prevent defense) in a Monday night game that most of the country wasn’t watching in Week 2. Young is not yet in command of the offense, and the leaky offensive line causing him to run for his life isn’t helping. The Panthers aren’t running the ball early when balance might help their young quarterback; they’re not passing the ball late when they’re trying to storm back. They had one drive longer than 45 yards against New Orleans, and that was in quasi-garbage time with the Saints more than happy to let Carolina dink-and-dunk their way up the field. Young is averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, the lowest for a rookie quarterback in their first two starts since the merger. That’s not good, folks.

There are positives here – the defense is getting some pressure, and there were some flashes of mobility on Young’s part against New Orleans. Some of the free agents are beginning to get into action, notably Adam Thielen. But this year was never going to be judged by playoff success; it was going to be judged by how well Young has looked. Thus far, he’s come up a bit short, but it’s a long season. Far, far too early to judge him at this point.

Doom Index: The sudden, inexplicable feeling that you’re standing in the wrong place and have no idea how you got there.

Chicago Bears

Current Pulse Predictions: 4-13
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 1.6%

DVOA’s playoff odds give Chicago a 1.1% chance of going 0-17, and the highest odds of their pick being first in the draft (though Arizona still has a better chance of getting the top pick because they also own Houston’s.) And it’s clear, at this point, that Justin Fields simply is not it.

Fields simply has no internal clock. He has taken ten sacks this season, and nine of them have come at least four seconds into the play. The idea of throwing the ball away doesn’t seem to even come close to crossing his mind. The Bears have given Fields the fourth-most time until pressure through two weeks, with only Anthony Richardson, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott enjoying more time in the pocket before they’re forced to make a move. Those three passers have been sacked a combined total of six times. Fields is also not throwing the ball downfield, or towards the first down marker, or…well, anywhere, really. And this is the offense.

Lavonte David on the Pick 6: “they ran the same play, same formation. Everyone knew what was coming”

This isn’t an exaggeration either. The Bears actually tried to run the same play 3 times in a row from the same formation pic.twitter.com/s8NGyXab5g

— Slot Guys Matter (@T3Jab) September 18, 2023

Better luck next time, Bears fans.

Doom Index: Four more years of staring longingly at Sid Luckman highlights.

New England Patriots

Current Pulse Predictions: 4-13
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 14.1%

I’ll be honest with you; I’d subjectively rank the Patriots back up there with the “probably in trouble” teams as opposed to the dead in the water teams, but you readers picking on Playoff Predictors have the Patriots being an utter disaster, so I shall continue to leave them here.

Like the Vikings, I don’t really see a path to a winning season for New England; their fading playoff hopes probably still require as many wins as possible to be shuttled off to the NFC. But this feels like a team who, if things get a little better, could at least avoid double-digit losses. Bill Belichick’s teams don’t bottom out entirely, after all.

They had a chance late against both Philadelphia and Miami to win, with their offense just petering out at the last moment in both games. Those are two Super Bowl contenders they lost to there; they don’t have a Buccaneers or Raiders failure on their resume yet. But the final score of both games flattered the Patriots; results of the Philly and Miami offenses sputtering more than it was anything particularly great New England was doing. A trick special teams block here, a surprise defensive scheme there, and Belichick keeps finding ways to keep his team closer than maybe they otherwise deserve?

But then the lack of talent on offense shows up. This is a team that wants to win 17-16 every week, and they have not had that opportunity yet against a pair of powerhouses. They don’t have receivers who can be dynamic and make something happen themselves, and Mac Jones, while serviceable, is not going to start picking apart defenses with his arm. They want to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson, pass off of that as defenses creep up, and escape with wins. That’s simply not toing to work against the sorts of teams they’ve had to face so far. And, seeing how they were projected with one of the toughest schedules in the league coming in, that’s not great.

Their strategy should work a little better against the Jets this week, and the Saints and Raiders are winnable matchups in weeks 5 and 6, but there are a lot of bombs left on this schedule. Dallas. Buffalo. Miami again, all before the bye. This New England team does not have the firepower to survive this schedule, though they’ll at least not totally embarrass themselves while washing out.

Doom Index: We’re On to 2024.

Houston Texans

Current Pulse Predictions: 1-16
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 3.3%

Yeah, no one thought Houston was going to the playoffs in Year 1 of the C.J. Stroud era. And so far, Stroud has been boldly leading this offense right into the ground, absorbing 11 sacks in two weeks. That’s never been a problem for a highly-drafted Texans quarterback before, right?

To be fair. I have no idea how Houston was supposed to protect Stroud without four starting offensive linemen this last week in Indianapolis. That should get better at some point, and maybe we can start evaluating Stroud. And DeMeco Ryans is generating a bunch of pressure, so that bodes well for the future! A future which does not involve this season, of course. Until we see what a healthy Texans offense looks like, this season hasn’t even really started yet for Houston. At least, not in any way that will matter long-term

Doom Index: Flashbacks to a Carr crash.

Arizona Cardinals

Current Pulse Predictions: 0-17
Current FTN Playoff Odds: 2.0%

Doom? What are you talking about? Everything’s coming up Arizona. That’s back-to-back competitive games, providing excitement and highlights for the fans. And then two losses, so they don’t harm their draft position! The tank’s going great, thank you very much.

We thought the Cardinals would be an utter, utter disaster. Instead, they merely stink. Hurray for low expectations, and hopefully Jonathan Gannon can find a player or two he wants to keep for the start of the next Cardinals era, scheduled to begin on Draft Day 2024.

Doom Index: A member of Gen Z’s sense of hope and optimism for the future.

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