Week 4 Game Changing Plays: Eagles Fly Away
10 min read
Eagles WR A.J. Brown
And then there were two.
With the Miami Dolphins getting fairly thoroughly beaten in Buffalo, there are just two undefeated teams left in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers withstood a counterpunch attempt by the scrappy but overmatched Arizona Cardinals, cruising away with a victory in the fourth quarter on a day their defense couldn’t be stopped. But the Philadelphia Eagles? The Eagles got in dogfight in the NFC East.
Last season, the Washington Commanders handed the Eagles their first loss of the season, and they they did their best to repeat the feat on Sunday. While they ultimately came up just short, it turns out that having a highly competitive game between divisional rivals with a combined record of 5-1 entering the week is highly conducive to creating the biggest plays of the week. Add in win probability added to playoff probability added, and six of the ten largest plays of the week were ones Philadelphia needed to stay undefeated.
Flip the result, and Washington takes command of the NFC East at 3-1, with the Eagles falling down to the sixth seed, behind Dallas on the divisional record tiebreaker. Instead, the Eagles hold the number one seed in the NFC thanks to the strength of victory tiebreaker over San Francisco, while Washington floats down in the 2-2 muck, their 1-1 conference record keeping them firmly at home.
With that in mind, we’re going to tackle this week a little differently. We’re still looking at the 10 plays that changed the playoff odds the most this week, but we’re going to start with the four from outside the Eagles-Commanders game, and then go through the finish of that one more or less chronologically, so you can see just how close the Eagles came to losing this one.
10. Zach Wilson Reverts to Form at the Worst Time
On Sunday night, Zach Wilson became the first opposing quarterback to have more completions, more passing yards, more touchdown passes and fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes did in a game he started, college or pro. The unlikely story of Wilson outdueling Mahomes was reaching a fever pitch in the fourth quarter with the Jets, driving for at least a game-tying field goal attempt…mishandled the snap. The Chiefs fell on top if it, and New York never touched the ball again.
Wilson took full responsibility for the loss after the game. “It’s on me. Critical situation, I can’t have a play like that. I cannot drop the ball. This team is sacrificing a lot. Guys we’re making plays, defense was making plays, O-line was protecting, and to be driving right there, and to drop a snap? I cannot do that. I lost us that and I cannot do that. I was making it clear to those guys that I need to be better. I need to be better on the little things, the details. It can’t happen.” A painful end to what was one of the best games of his career.
9. Desmond Ridder is the Upper-Class Twit of the Year
Desmond Ridder had a nightmare of a game in London, with the fans who actually woke up early to watch this one calling for his head by halftime. Ridder finished 19-for-31 for 191 yards with a late touchdown and two picks, a statline that severely flatters him. The point where this game turned from an uphill climb for Atlanta to a foregone conclusion came late in the second quarter, where Darious Williams jumped an out route and saw nothing but empty field between him and the goal line. A big win for Jacksonville, with the four AFC South teams all clumped together at 2-2.
8. Welcome to the NFL, Aiden O’Connell
One of the stars of preseason, Aiden O’Connell got an opportunity to start over decrepit veteran Brian Hoyer in relief of a concussed Jimmy Garoppolo against the Chargers. This was the only game of the late window which offered any real drama, with Los Angeles doing everything they could to throw the game away, to the delight of the crowd at home. Having come roaring back from a 24-7 halftime deficit, and stuffing the Chargers on fourth down to get a chance at a game-tying drive (just like last week, when the Chargers failed on fourth against Minnesota!), the Raiders had a chance. O’Connell converted a huge 4th-and-10 to give Las Vegas a goal-to-go opportunity…and immediately throws a pick to Asante Samuel. Had Samuel wanted to, he could likely haves scored a pick-six. At least, he could have gotten the ball out of the shadow of Los Angeles’ own goalposts. In the end, that didn’t matter — the Raiders never touched the ball again, and the Chargers got back to 2-2.
5. Puka Nacua Finally Finds the End Zone
Puka Nacua has been catching roughly ten zillion short passes. His 39 receptions through four games is the most for a rookie in NFL history, but most of them have come within five yards of the line of scrimmage; the end zone is generally a bit further away than that. In overtime against the Colts, however, Nacua ran an uncharacteristically deep route, found some open space, made one man miss, and found the end zone for the first time in his career! A walkoff, game-winning 22-yard score? It doesn’t get much sweeter than that.
On to the Eagles!
6. A.J. Brown Runs Circles Around Everyone
Except no! Another field goal padded Philly’s lead to 24-17, but Washington then started to march. An unnecessary roughness call on Terrell Edmunds hitting Sam Howell out of bounds set up a Brian Robinson touchdown with 8:07 left to go in the game. That knocked Philadelphia’s win probability back down to 60%. An exchange of punts and time ticking away caused that to slide down to about 51%, with the Eagles facing 3rd-and-8 with 2:34 left in the ballgame, and the ball on the wrong side of midfield. Sounds like it’s time for a big play!
3. Olamide Zacchaeus Keeps the Drive Alive
Jalen Hurts found Olamide Zaccheaus over the middle, picking up the first down and avoiding having to punt the ball back to Washington with the score tied. Hurts, who didn’t have the strongest day, rifled an absolute missile between two defenders, moving the ball into Washington territory as they reached the two minute warning. That bumped Philadelphia’s win probability back up to 73%. The ideal outcome now was to gain 15-20 more yards, kick a field goal as time expired, and get out of Dodge.
That’s not what the Eagles did. Three plays later, Hurts hit A.J. Brown for his second touchdown of the game, giving Philadelphia a 31-24 lead. That’s a positive development, moving win probability up to 92% — but that’s not 100! The Eagles scored too quickly, giving the ball back to Washington with 96 seconds left and a timeout in their pocket. In addition, a taunting foul on Brown moved the ball back on the kickoff, meaning Washington was able to start in decent field position, on their own 36-yard line.
And Philly, whose secondary was getting carved up all day, was not up to the challenge. They did manage to force a 3rd-and-17, which became a 4th-and-2, but Washington converted it. And, as time expired, Sam Howell hit Jahan Dotson in the end zone to tie things up and send us to overtime. Philadelphia’s win probability — back to 56%.
7. Commanders Punt the Game Away
Oh, Riverboat Ron.
The game went to overtime because Ron Rivera opted to kick the extra point, rather than go for two and the win at the gun. With Philadelphia being the better team, at least on paper, this was probably a mistake. Ben Baldwin’s bot estimates the Commanders left 2.5% of win probability on the field by not attempting to win the game right then and there. But, fair enough, that’s a bold call, and a tough one to make in the moment. And they won the coin toss, so hey, no harm, no foul, right?
Well, no. Harm. Foul. Washington promptly went three-and-out, punting the ball back on 4th-and-5 from their own 30 yard line. The decision is there is probably a toss-up, with a slight edge towards going for it. It was, after all, the last time Washington would touch the ball in the game. Would have been nice to have that play at the two rather than their own 30! To make matters worse, Tress Way had a terrible punt of just 29 yards, setting up the Eagles on their own 41 with a 77% chance to win. All they need was the field goal. How hard could that be?
2. The Most Controversial Tush Push
Immediately, the Eagles face a 4th-and-inches from midfield, bumping their win probability back down to 38%. Ah, but the models don’t know Philadelphia boasts the unstoppable Brotherly Shove! The Tush Push gets the first down, and all is well with the world…
Except, you know. Landon Dickerson (69) clearly gets an early start, and should have been flagged. And DaRon Payne (94) appears to have had his hand under the ball before it was snapped, which should be a neutral zone infraction. Assuming Payne’s hand was under the ball, it should have been a five-yard penalty against Washington. And if it wasn’t, it should have been a five-yard penalty against Philadelphia. Whatever it was, it shouldn’t have been a two-yard Hurts gain, but that’s the world in which we live.
A successful conversion there upped Philadelphia’s win probability to 63%. Now, all they had to do is get the ball into field goal range.
4. DeAndre Swift Gets the Ball Into Field Goal Range
DeAndre Swift then moved the ball into field goal range. Two plays after the Tush Push, Swift had an 11-yard reception on a little swing route, bringing the ball to the Washington 38 for a 55-yard field goal attempt. The next play, he gained four more yards, cutting things to a 51-yarder. Elliott’s got a leg on him, but every yard helps. Elliott was a career 15-for-20 from 49-53 yards out, and just 11-for-21 from 53 yards or longer; we’re right on the edge of what could be considered a comfortable range for an Elliott field goal. With the game-winner in sight, the Eagles’ win probability ticked up to 79%; they could taste it.
And they never got closer. The very next play, Hurts was flagged for intentional grounding on a miscommunication deep shot, knocking Philadelphia out of field goal range and their win probability down to 38%. They picked some of it back up on the next play, but that still left Elliott with a 54-yarder; that’s right at that 50/50 mark for Elliott’s career…
1. Jake Elliott Wins the Game
Game: blouses. The most important play of the year so far (knocking off Blake Grupe’s missed game-winner from last week) keeps the Eagles undefeated, in control of their own destiny, and in first place in the conference. A slightly closer call than they would have liked, but undefeated is undefeated. Next up? Road trips to the feisty Rams and the stiff Jets defense. Better tidy a few things up if they want to get to 6-0.
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