Play Sheet

by Playoff Predictors

Week 13 Game Changing Plays: Packers Get a Passing Grade

7 min read
The Packers scored a win for chaos by beating the Chiefs on Sunday night. Elsewhere, the Texans haunt Russell Wilson, Vintage Joe Flacco shows up for Cleveland, and the Falcons and Jets played what can technically be described as football.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson

Packers WR Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson

Well, we wanted chaos, and here we are.

Before Week 13 kicked off, we said that the outcome that would throw both conferences into the most chaos would be a Packers upset over the Chiefs, a result that would throw both the race for the final NFC wildcard slot and the top seed in the AFC into disarray. Well, that’s exactly what we got in Green Bay’s 27-19 victory, with the wire-to-wire victory setting us up for a wild finish to the season.

It’s unfortunate that the game will in large part be overshadowed by a series of questionable calls in the final two minutes, as it seemed every other play down the stretch brought with it some sort of controversy — questionable unnecessary roughness calls, missed pass interferences, incorrectly applied rules and the like. It was a frustrating ending to the game.

And that shouldn’t be what the game is remembered for. Jordan Love, having taken massive steps forward since the beginning of the season, had a wild and mostly successful night, throwing high-risk, high-reward passes and getting great results out of them. The defense found ways to get Patrick Mahomes, one of the slipperiest passers in the league, onto the ground on a regular basis. Make no mistake — the Packers played well enough to win even before the refs stepped in to adjudicate the ending of the game, and they deserve to be lauded for it.

But before we do, let’s look at some of the other game-changing moments from Week 13.

Jimmie Ward Crushes Broncos Hopes

With the Houston Texans offense not firing on full cylinders, the oft-maligned defense stood up and gave them a huge win in a key wildcard battle against the Denver Broncos. Houston’s other first-round pick, Will Anderson, pressured Russell Wilson eight times and tipped a pass right into the hands of Derek Stingley, one of three Wilson interceptions on the day. But while Stingley came down with two picks, it was the veteran Jimmie Ward who came down with the most important one. With time running out in the fourth quarter, Wilson had to put up a prayer into the end zone, which Ward was able to cutoff and intercept, clinching the victory for Houston. With the win, the Texans join the 7-5 conga line that is all three AFC wildcard spots at the moment, although they’re currently the odd team out thanks to their head-to-head loss to Indianapolis back in Week 2. They’ll have a chance to get revenge in Week 18 in what might end up being a play-in game.

Falcons Somehow Stay in Front

The Jets-Falcons game will not go down as one of the more exciting, well-played games the NFL has ever seen. Nor will the NFC South race this season be remembered as a high-level competition between quality teams. Nevertheless, with playoff positioning on the line, Atlanta’s defense came in and harried both Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian to clinch a 13-8 victory. They forced three turnovers, with Richie Grant’s strip sack in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter being the one that finally shut the door on the Jets, moving the Falcons to 6-6. Atlanta would have been in first place in the division either way, but at 6-6 they have a one-game cushion on the rest of the NFC South and can focus on completing the sweep over Tampa Bay next week.

Vintage Minshew Magic

A bizarre, back-and-forth game in Tennessee ended up being arguably the oddest game of Week 13. How many times will you see two blocked punts in a single game, not to mention a missed extra point due in part to a punter injury send the game to overtime? Whatever the case, Gardner Minshew found a way to keep the Indianapolis Colts in touch throughout, finishing 26-of-42 for 312 yards and a pair of scores. His biggest play wasn’t a touchdown, though; it was a 55-yard bomb to Alec Pierce to set up the game-winning touchdown in overtime that gets the nod here. And, as such, the Colts cling to the seventh seed for now, with major games against Pittsburgh and Houston coming up. None of the AFC wildcard contenders can afford to slip up, and Minshew is keeping Indianapolis’ offense afloat.

Oh, Browns.

I’ve got good news, Cleveland fans! You scored a touchdown down seven points in the fourth quarter! That means you’re just an extra point away from tying things up…

Oh.

Well, that’s no worries. You have the elite Joe Flacco himself as your quarterback of the day, and surely he can find a way to drive you down the field for another score with his patented underthrown deep balls…

Oh.

The loss knocked the Browns from fifth to sixth in the AFC wildcard hunt, and to third in the AFC North itself; Pittsburgh has the advantage right now on divisional record. As for the beneficiaries of these Cleveland gifts, the Rams improve to 6-6 and are right in the thick of the NFC wildcard muck, even if their Week 9 loss to the Packers currently has them on the outside looking in.

Packers Ruin Mahomes’ First Trip to Lambeau

Let’s talk high-risk, high-reward passes, shall we? Jordan Love had three completions which each saw the Packers’ win probability jump by at least 8%, making big plays in tight moments.

The first throw to Doubs saw Love backpedaling, throwing off his back foot into quadruple coverage, and yet coming up with the big play anyway. The second saw Love hitting a well-covered Christian Watson on a jump ball right over the head of Josh Williams. And the third was also off of Love’s back foot, though Doubs was more than wide enough open to make the throw a safe bet.

This isn’t necessarily the ideal form for a quarterback, but the confidence is admirable. Love has been building a rapport with Doubs and Watson, one that wasn’t there to begin the season. Trust in his arm, and trust in his receivers to make the big-time reception in key moments, gave Green Bay the kind of plays they were missing in September and October. Ideally, you’d like to see the Packers offense working in more sustainable ways — please stop throwing to a receiver surrounded by the entire opposing secondary, Jordan — but Love, as he did all night long, found ways to make magic happen. This was Love’s fourth game in 2023 with three or more passing touchdowns and no interceptions, tying Brock Purdy for the most such games in the league this season.

Of course, none of Love’s performance would have mattered had Green Bay not been able to slow down the Chiefs’ passing attack. Mahomes was sacked three times and hurried much more frequently. While Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice got theirs, the Chiefs often found themselves frustrated on late downs and distances. Two key plays in the fourth quarter stand out. First, there was an incomplete pass on 3rd-and-8 where Richie James may have been interfered with, but no flag was thrown.

That forced a punt, and Green Bay was able to stretch their lead with another field goal. That was still just a one-score game, however, and with 6:03 left, Mahomes had all the time in the world to mount a comeback. Just three plays in, however, Mahomes threw one of the uglier passes of his career.

Keisean Nixon tracked it down, the Packers added another field goal and drained nearly the entire remainder of the clock, and the Chiefs were unable to navigate the penaltyfest to force overtime.

The Packers’ win slides them into the #7 seed at the moment, as they’ve come all the way back to in the thick of the NFC wildcard race. The Chiefs, on the other hand? Well, they would have been in first place in the AFC with a win. Instead, they find themselves in fourth, and have ceded control of the bye week to the Ravens and Jaguars. The Chiefs still will likely win any tiebreaker they come across for the top seed, but they’re finding themselves in a situation where they have to run down the front runners, rather than setting the pace themselves. That’s not ideal.

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