2023 Playoff Picture Roundup: One Game Away
13 min read
Seahawks WR Jackson Smith-Njigba
Everyone excited for Super Wild Card Weekend? I know I am. I think the matchups I’m particularly intrigued by are the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Dallas Cowboys; seeing if Arthur Smith can hold on to his job. Or maybe the shambling remains of the Minnesota Vikings collapsing their way into Philadelphia; watching Nick Mullens throw for 500 yards with six interceptions is always a good time. And don’t count out the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting Cleveland, with Duval rocking.
…What, none of those games are happening? The Falcons, Vikings and Jaguars are all staying at home this year? OK, I see what I’ve done – I’ve flipped all the Week 18 results in my head. This could have happened, but it didn’t. How embarrassing; my deepest apologies.
Fourteen teams make the playoffs, which mean 18 do not – and often times, it’s one result, or even one play, that’s the difference between playing in January and staying home; between coaches being lauded and fired. The Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings and Falcons each could have made the playoffs had Week 18 fallen just a little differently; it takes almost no effort at all to get them into the playoffs.
And then you have teams like the Panthers or Patriots who, uh, require a bit more elbow grease.
For our last article of the year, let’s look at the 18 non-playoff teams, and see how easy it is to flip results and turn each into a playoff team. Better luck next year, guys!
One Game Out
Six teams ended up just one game short of making the playoffs – flip one result, and they’re in.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Flip any Seahawk loss into a win, and they are a 10-7 wild card; they only fell short because of a strength of victory tiebreaker against Green Bay. Their biggest missed opportunities came in the 17-13 loss to Cincinnati in Week 6, where they faced both a 1st-and-goal from the 7 and a 1st-and-10 from the 11 in the last 3:30. Both times, they turned the ball over on downs, with Geno Smith eating a Sam Hubbard sack on the first attempt and missing Colby Parkinson on the second. 384 yards of total offense, but just one touchdown, and so the Seahawks are staying home.
New Orleans Saints (9-8)
Flip any Saints loss to a win, and they are your NFC South champions at 10-7; they only fell short because of an inferior common games record against Tampa Bay. Their biggest missed opportunity came all the way back in September, where they lost 18-17 to the Packers after Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury. All of Green Bay’s 18 points came in the fourth quarter, with Jameis Winston and company unable to have a drive over 20 yards…until the very end. Finally waking up, Winston hit Chris Olave with a deep shot to move the ball into Green Bay territory and set up Blake Grupe for a 46-yard game winning field goal attempt – nothing that should be too difficult in the NFL, right? Well, maybe not.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
You can’t flip just any Bengals loss to a win to get them into the playoffs, as a 10-7 Cincinnati team might still finish behind the Steelers thanks to the head-to-head sweep. You need to have Cincinnati win a game over an AFC wild card team – and fortunately, they have three of those losses to choose from, dropping to Cleveland in Week 1 and being swept by Pittsburgh in Weeks 12 and 16. Honestly, none of them were particularly close. You could make an argument for the Steelers loss in Week 12, with Pittsburgh only scoring one touchdown but putting up 421 yards of offense, but I’d argue that Cincinnati played better in their 34-11 loss to Pittsburgh in December. If you ignore one player, the Bengals would have held the Steelers to just 202 yards of offense and 3.9 yards per play, while the Bengals averaged 6.0 yards per play. Even with three Jake Browning turnovers, that would be more than enough to win. It’s just that, well, George Pickens exists, and he decided he was going to win this one with a four-reception, 195-yard, two-touchdown showcase. You’ll get ‘em next time.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Flip any Jaguars loss, and they’re a playoff team. If you have them beat any AFC team, they’re your AFC South champion; if you instead have them beat San Francisco, they lose out to the Texans on conference record but slip in over Pittsburgh on head-to-head results for a wild card berth. We’re not going to touch that San Francisco game, of course, and instead focus on the overtime loss to Cincinnati in December. Jake Browning’s first career start shocked everyone, and Trevor Lawrence got hurt at the end of regulation, both of which would have gone down a little easier had Evan McPherson not kicked two long field goals, both to take the lead. The second one, in overtime, ultimately sent Jacksonville packing, when even a tie would have seen them slip through to the postseason.
Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
Flip any Colts loss to a win, and they’re in the playoffs. Flip any AFC South loss, and they win the division. The Week 18 loss to Houston is freshest in Colts fans minds, of course, but even if Tyler Goodson catches the pass on fourth down, Indianapolis still would have had to find the end zone to win. Instead, let’s go back to the wild October loss to Cleveland, a topsy-turvy 39-38 defeat which saw both teams take the lead twice in the fourth quarter. Even before then, it was crazy, with Myles Garrett having himself a day – two strip sacks and a blocked field goal, all of which led to Cleveland points. In a one-point loss, it’s fair to say that Garrett had a mildly oversized impact on the result; if he had had even a normal day, the Colts win and are in the postseason.
Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
The Raiders have one game you can flip that would get them in – the 23-18 loss to the Steelers back in September. That would have gotten the Raiders to 9-8, and their 7-5 conference record would have seen them top Jacksonville and Pittsburgh to earn the seventh seed. That was a rare two-touchdown day from Kenny Pickett, in front of a ‘road’ crowd that seemed strangely full of terrible towels, almost as if the Raiders have not yet established a fanbase in Las Vegas. When you’re letting Kenny Pickett throw darts against you, you’re having a long night.
Two Games Out
And so we come to an end of our teams who can get into the playoffs with just one flipped result; everyone else is at least more than one game out. At least some of these teams can blame one bad stretch or one recurring flaw for staying home in January; they’re just not able to write things off as one bad day.
Denver Broncos (8-9)
For Denver, your best shot is to flip the Week 1 loss to the Raiders and the Week 13 loss to the Texans, getting the Broncos to 10-7 and ahead of the Steelers on common opponents. The Raiders were able to run out the clock in the 17-16 Week 1 victory thanks to a Kareem Jackson unnecessary roughness call extending a drive – something which was a harbinger for the rest of Jackson’s season.
As for the Texans game, the Broncos were driving with a chance to win, until Russel Wilson killed their chances, throwing an interception to Jimmie Ward in the back of the end zone with nine seconds left. Get that ball to Lucas Krull, and the Broncos come out on top.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
You can get the Vikings in by flipping just two games, too, but there’s a catch. Flip two non-divisional games, and the 9-8 Vikings still finish behind the 9-8 Packers thanks to an inferior divisional record. Beating the Packers takes care of that, but they would finish behind 9-8 Seattle on common games if the second win is against an AFC team, which most of Minnesota’s closest losses are. So we either need to flip the Week 17 Packers blowout + any NFC game or any two divisional games to get Minnesota into the playoffs. Considering how uncompetitive the Vikings were against the Packers in the Jaren Hall start, our best bet is to flip the Bears in Week 12 and the Lions in Week 16.
The 12-10 loss to the Bears was sparked by four Josh Dobbs interceptions, as the rocket scientist ran out of fuel…
…while the Lions game saw Nick Mullens throw four interceptions, sealing the 30-24 loss.
Protip: try not to throw four interceptions in one game! It helps.
Chicago Bears (7-10)
The Bears are in a somewhat similar boat to Minnesota, except they got swept by Green Bay. So for the 9-8 Bears to slip into the playoffs, they have to pick up at least one win over the Packers, plus one more NFC win so they can slip past the Seahawks on conference record.
They had a slightly better chance of beating the Packers in Week 1, though a 38-20 score is far from ‘close’. Jordan Love dealt in that one, a good two months before he became a reliable option for Green Bay, throwing for 245 yards and a trio of touchdowns.
The other win is a little easier to find. Arguably, the Bears should have upset the Lions in Week 11, as they held a 26-14 lead with just 4:15 left in the game. The Lions scored 17 points in the last three minutes of the game, however, and escaped with the 31-26 victory.
Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
While flipping a Tampa Bay loss would be enough for the Falcons to pass the Buccaneers, the Saints would still be a game ahead of them. We need two games, then, and the best two we can find are the back-to-back divisional losses Atlanta suffered in Week 14 and 15.
In Week 14, it was the Buccaneers escaping 29-25 thanks to a last-second touchdown pass to Cade Otton.
And the following week, it was the ugly, ugly 9-7 loss to Carolina, where multiple second-half turnovers led to Panthers field goals in one of the worst-played games of the year.
Two weeks, and the Falcons playoff hopes were washed down the drain.
Three Games Out
Well, these teams did not have enjoyable seasons at all. Still. Could be worse.
New York Jets (7-10)
A bunch (but not all) three-game combinations will work to slip the Jets into the playoffs at 10-7; they have a strong common opponents record against Pittsburgh. The two easiest to flip are the Week 4 loss against Kansas City – a 23-20 loss where New York rallied from a 17-0 deficit to tie things at 20 before the Chiefs held on at the end – and the Week 10 loss against the Raiders – a 16-12 game where a late Josh Jacobs fumble at least gave the Jets late life, before Zach Wilson threw it away.
Flipping any other loss, though, is difficult. It has to be an AFC loss, but none of the others were particularly close. The 15-10 loss to the Patriots is probably your best bet, even if New York never looked capable of doing much of anything offensively that week. That’s most weeks for the Jets, though, so we’ll keep this as our best option.
New York Giants (6-11)
The Giants will also need three flipped wins, at least two of them in the NFC, to get into the postseason. Flip two AFC games, and New York’s 6-6 conference record won’t be enough to jump past the Packers or Rams. At 7-5, however, you can slip them in, thanks to their actual win over the Packers and a potential flip with the Rams.
That does make the Week 17 game against the Rams a near must-flip, but that was the obvious first choice anyway, with the Giants only losing thanks to Mason Crosby missing a 54-yard field goal at the end of the game.
The Bills game in Week 6 is our second-best call, with the Giants having a 9-7 lead in the fourth quarter before the Bills finally shocked themselves out of complacency and escaped with a 14-9 win. That takes away the overtime loss to the Jets as our possible third win, seeing as how we need another NFC flip. Our best hope here was a Christmas miracle against the Eagles, where a Darius Slayton touchdown brought the Giants within five points with 5:22 left, and they even had the ball with 1:10 left down eight, leading to a desperation shot into the end zone being intercepted. Flip those three games, and the 9-8 Giants move all the way to the sixth seed.
Tennessee Titans (6-11)
The Titans have one, and only one, three-game path to the playoffs – and it’s not to the AFC South title, as you might suspect. It would require the Titans to first beat the current seventh seed – the Steelers, who they lost to in Week 9. Alright, that was just a 20-16 loss, where the Titans’ comeback was squashed by an interception in the end zone with 0:06 left on the clock, that was close. Flipping that game puts Jacksonville into the #7 seed, so we need to flip the Titans’ Week 11 loss to Jacksonville. That was much less close; a 34-14 clobbering that was only that close because of a couple trick plays in a blowout (a pass to defensive tackle Justin Simmons; a direct snap to Derrick Henry that ended up pitching to Will Levis who threw to DeAndre Hopkins). Alright, let’s say that Jacksonville comes out on top there somehow. That would put Indianapolis into the seventh seed, so we’d need to flip one of the Titans’ two losses to them. Both of those were close, but the Week 13 game went into overtime, and saw Tennessee actually take a fifth-quarter lead after a Nick Folk field goal. All they needed to do was stop Indianapolis once, but Gardner Minshew did Gardner Minshew things.
Flip those three games, and precisely those three games, and the 9-8 Titans finish ahead of the 9-8 Steelers because of the head-to-head victory, and Tennessee is your seventh seed.
And Out…
One game can be easily flipped. Two might just be a stretch of bad play. Three games can, if you squint, be a reasonable path to the postseason. But our last five teams were so far out that they would need to flip at least a full month’s worth of games to sniff the postseason. That’s getting into crazy person territory, and not worth digging too far into – but here are the quick versions anyway; the easiest paths for the absolute bottom feeders to make the postseason.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-12)
- Week 2 v. Tennessee (27-24)
- Week 7 v. Kansas City (31-17)
- Week 17 v. Denver (24-7)
- Week 18 v. Kansas City (13-12)
Result: the 9-8 Chargers win the AFC West over the 9-8 Chiefs via a head-to-head sweep.
Washington Commanders (4-13)
- Week 4 v. Philadelphia (34-31)
- Week 5 v. Chicago (40-20)
- Week 8 v. Philadelphia (38-31)
- Week 10 v. Seattle (29-26)
- Week 11 v. NY Giants (31-19)
Result: the 9-8 Commanders finish over Philadelphia on a head-to-head sweep, New Orleans on conference record and Green Bay on common opponents to earn the #6 seed.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
- Week 1 v. Washington (20-16)
- Week 2 v. NY Giants (31-28)
- Week 11 v. Houston (21-16)
- Week 16 v. Chicago (27-16)
- Week 18 v. Seattle (21-20)
Result: the 9-8 Cardinals finish over New Orleans on conference record and Green Bay on common opponents to earn the #7 seed.
New England Patriots (4-13)
- Week 1 v. Philadelphia (25-20)
- Week 9 v. Washington (20-17)
- Week 10 v. Indianapolis (10-6)
- Week 12 v. NY Giants (10-7)
- Week 13 v. LA Chargers (6-0)
- Week 17 v. Buffalo (24-10)
Result: the 10-7 Patriots finish over Buffalo on a head-to-head sweep and Pittsburgh on conference record to earn the #6 seed.
Carolina Panthers (2-15)
- Week 1 v. Atlanta (24-10)
- Week 2 v. New Orleans (20-17)
- Week 10 v. Chicago (16-13)
- Week 13 v. Tampa Bay (21-18)
- Week 16 v. Green Bay (33-30)
- Week 18 v. Tampa Bay (9-0)
Result: the 8-9 Panthers finish over New Orleans on divisional record to win the NFC South.
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