Week 10 Game Changing Plays: Browns Throw a Wrench Into the Works
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Browns CB Greg Newsome
It looked like the AFC was going to start shaking out this week. The Baltimore Ravens took an early 14-0 lead over the Cleveland Browns, stretching it all the way out to 31-17 early in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were going to join the Chiefs atop the AFC, separating themselves from the likes of the Dolphins and Jaguars, while the Browns would be firmly planted in the muck that is the wildcard brawl. We were going to start getting clear tiers here, and start to see the AFC picture crystalize.
Instead, Deshaun Watson and company rallied back from down 14 points, making the mess of both the AFC North and the AFC seedings overall. Well, more chaos for us, I suppose!
The impact of the Browns win can be felt throughout the conference, where no no team controls their own fate for the #2 seed, and your current AFC North leaders don’t even control their own fate for the division. We’ll start getting more clarity next week, when the Browns take on the Steelers and the Ravens play the Bengals, but for now, it’s a glorious, glorious mess.
We’ll get into just how the Browns caused this pandemonium in a moment, but first, let’s go through the other most impactful moments of Week 10.
Not What They Mean by 12th Man
The Seattle Seahawks are, technically, the fourth team in the running for the top seed in the NFC, sitting at 6-3 with a very useful 5-1 conference record. The Washington Commanders, meanwhile, have traded away their entire pass rush and are presumably packing away their things for 2024 already. These should be teams traveling in two different directions, and yet, this game was close throughout. I do not want to take anything away from the Seahawks, who scored on their three final drives to seal the 29-26 victory, but with 4:41 left, they were facing a 4th-and-5 from the Washington 39. That’s a no-man’s land, with both a go-ahead field goal and a fourth down play being equally justifiable. Seattle decided to be bold and go for it, only for Geno Smith’s pass to hit the ground…followed by a flag.
The win keeps Seattle neck-and-neck with San Francisco in the division, though they’re still behind on the divisional record tiebreaker [2-0 to 1-1]. A loss would have knocked them down to the seventh seed, just a half-game ahead of a Commanders team that would have had the head-to-head matchup in their back pocket. Bullet dodged.
A Near-Perfect Game, And We Ain’t Lion
What is a perfect offensive game? Barring the near-impossibility of every single play being a success, we can come up with some criteria that might fit the general parameters. You don’t want to have any turnovers; those are generally bad. You want to control the ball and run all over the field, so having 200+ yards on the ground seems like a decent benchmark. And you want your passing game to be littered with huge gains — say, 10 net yards per pass play, taking sacks into account?
OK, that’s a rather arbitrary selection of numbers, but they’re good numbers. That combination of stats has only happened 56 times since they started recording sacks in the 1960s, with Detroit putting up number 56 on Sunday. And wouldn’t you know it, those teams are 56-0. Turns out, if you’re moving the ball at will, you win a lot of football games! As for the defense, uh, we won’t talk about it. Or, at least, we’ll note that Detroit did just enough to win the 41-38 shootout. Hey, if they can’t stop you, you win if you get the ball last, right?
A loss here would have had the Lions slip to third in the NFC, as the 49ers have the more impressive strength of victory. The Chargers would have been tied for the final AFC wildcard spot at 5-4, just slipping behind the Texans on conference record. Instead, the Lions remain just one game back of the Eagles for the top slot in the NFC, and the Chargers are on life support.
Love Hurts
How many goal-line interceptions is it good to throw in a game? Is it two? Is two to many? Asking for a friend.
Once again, the Steelers had fewer yards than their opponents; they’ve now been outgained in every single matchup this season. And once again, it didn’t matter, as the defense game up with huge plays multiple times. Jordan Love and the Packers looked effective at times, but Pittsburgh’s defense clamped down in the second half to give their sluggish offense time to respond. Green Bay had four drives in the fourth quarter, all of them trailing by between one and four points. Time, if there ever was one, for a Jordan Love Legacy Drive. The results?
- A three-and-out
- A 13-yard drive leading to another punt
- A tip-drill interception in the end zone, with Keanu Neal running it out.
- An interception as time expired at the goal line, with Damontae Kazee ending the game.
The Steelers would be in playoff position no matter the outcome of this one, but the win keeps them tied with Cleveland in second place in the AFC North, just one win behind the Ravens; a loss would have had them atop the 5-4 mess in the middle of the standings. Once again, the defense saved the day by standing on its head.
Cleveland’s Comeback Reshapes the AFC Race
Let’s set the scene. It’s halfway through the fourth quarter. Elijah Moore had just scored a touchdown, but the Ravens maintained a 31-24 lead with under nine minutes to go — time to run some clock, put some more points on the board, and preserve the victory…
Now, that’s just bit of bad luck for Baltimore. Ogbo Okoronkwo, bull rushing through through the left guard, got his hand up and tipped Lamar Jackson’s pass into the flat, with Greg Newsome being Johnny on the spot to grab the deflection and return it for six — and only six, as the extra point was missed.
The Ravens know a thing or two about blowing leads. They have lost only seven games in the past two regular seasons with Jackson as a starter. They had at least a 75% win probability in the fourth quarter of each one, per ESPN — and were above 90% in five of the seven, this one included. A good team – and make no mistake, the Ravens are a good team – falling this often in these should-win situations begins to become a disturbing pattern. Baltimore simply can not seem to close out games.
And this one was no exception. Now, needing to either drain eight minutes off the clock or score punts, the Ravens managed just one first down, giving the ball back to the Browns with 5:03 left on the clock. That’s alright, though — Baltimore came in with the second-highest defensive DVOA in the league, and they just needed one stop.
Just…one…
One ordinary stop…
Instead, Cleveland marched down the field, with all of their offensive contributors on the day making something happen. Jerome Ford (17 carries, 107 yards) picked up two key third-downs, keeping the chains moving. Amari Cooper (six catches, 98 yards) had a huge grab on 2nd-and-19, setting up the massive, rugby-esque push for Ford on the next play. And Deshaun Watson, who had started the game with a tipped pick six of his own and looked absolutely lost for much of the first half, completed all 14 pass attempts in the second half for 134 yards and a touchdown, as well as some key scrambles to keep drives alive at the end. And, in the end, even Dustin Hopkins got to make up for his missed extra point.
And now, the AFC North is a mess, as is the top of the AFC as a whole. The Chiefs still control their fate for the #1 seed, but nobody controls their fate for #2 — there are loops of tiebreakers, depending on who beats who elsewhere. The 7-3 Ravens are still a half-game ahead of the division, but they don’t control their own fate. If both they and Cleveland wind up winning out, Cleveland would win the tie at 14-3 thanks to the Browns’ superior conference record.
The Browns are the only team in the AFC to control at least the #3 seed, but they don’t go any further than that; the Dolphins could beat them to the #2 record thanks to their superior common games record (they could go undefeated against the Jets, Broncos, Ravens and Titans). But the Dolphins can’t clinch anything better than the #4 seed by winning out, because the Jaguars would have them over the barrel in common games, and the Steelers are way ahead of them in strength of victory. But the Steelers and Jaguars can’t control anything better than #4, because the three-way tie between them and Miami would come down to that strength of victory, which is as of yet unsettled.
In other words, it’s a mess, and it’s a mess because Cleveland gave that loss to Baltimore. This week’s games, with the four AFC North teams playing one another, will give us some clarity, but until then? Chaos. Chaos in the AFC!
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