Week 12 Playoff Update: The Denver Broncos, Your 2023 Zombie Team
7 min read
Broncos coach Sean Payton
If you’re 1-5, you’re dead and buried. That’s just the harsh reality of statistics.
Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams, there have been 134 teams who started the year 1-5. Only three of them managed to scrap their way back to the postseason. The 2020 Washington Football Team finished 7-9 in one of the worst divisions in history, making the playoffs because someone in the NFC East had to, by rule. The 2015 Chiefs and 2018 Colts are better success stories, hitting 11-5 and 10-6, respectively, and earning wild card berths. But these are, by their very nature, rare and difficult. Putting yourself in a position where you almost have to win out is not conducive to your ongoing success.
Which brings us to the Denver Broncos, left for dead at the side of the road at 1-5 five weeks ago. And it’s not like the Broncos were a particularly competitive 1-5, either. While they weren’t as bad as their 70-20 shellacking at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, they were 30th in DVOA at -31.4%, complete with the worst defense in the NFL. The Chiefs and Colts, by comparison, were average-to-bad, depending on how harsh you wanted to be. The Broncos? Very bad, with a terrible defense and an offense barely keeping its head above water. They would have ranked 93rd out of those 134 1-5 teams in DVOA, so they were below average even for a team that couldn’t win a game. That’s not where you start looking for a miracle comeback squad! Their playoff odds, per FTN, had fallen all the way to 0.5%, and that was with giving them some benefit of the doubt from their not-as-bad preseason projection. Outside of maybe Carolina, the Broncos were the deadest team in the league.
Well, they’re back. The Broncos have ripped off four straight wins, have gotten back to .500, and are right in the thick of the playoff race. If they were in the NFC, they’d nearly be a shoo-in to earn a wildcard slot, especially after that big win over Minnesota on Sunday night. Life is tougher in the AFC, where Denver currently sits 10th in the middle of a knot of teams at 5-5, but they’re only one game out of the playoff race as things stand. The road isn’t easy from here on out, and they still have the worst defensive DVOA in the league because things were so bad in September, but they’ve pulled their postseason odds up to 11.8% and climbing, per FTN. They may require the seventh seed to do it, but Denver is a legitimate contender for this year’s Zombie Team; the one you write off as dead early in the year but comes clawing back to relevancy late.
If anything, FTN might be underestimating their chances, too. If you believe Denver’s defensive turnaround over the past four games is a legitimate reflection of their true talent, rather than just being a string of good games, then you might be able to argue that the Broncos should be closer to 25% or so. You can’t just pretend Denver didn’t give up 70 points to Miami; that happened, as much as everyone in Colorado would like to forget it. But in this winning streak, Denver has jumped from 32nd in defensive DVOA to eighth. Pair a good defense with an above-average, if still not special, offense, and you have a wildcard contender. One who spent all of September shooting themselves in the foot, mind you, but a contender notwithstanding.
Denver’s also picked up a couple valuable wins along the way. The Bills are currently a half game ahead of Denver in the standings, but the Broncos have the head-to-head tiebreaker, which may be very relevant. The head-to-head win over the Chiefs is not going to be relevant there, but it does significantly boost Denver’s strength of victory. With seven teams grouped between 6-4 and 5-6 at the moment, there’s a real chance that there will be a tie complicated enough to require strength of victory to break, and if so, Denver’s got a leg up on the competition. The fact that those are Denver’s only two conference wins hurts a lot; the only ream with fewer wins in the AFC are the Cincinnati Bengals. But four AFC losses are not the end of the world just yet; Denver is a little fortunate that their NFC was mostly frontloaded into a time when they weren’t playing well, leaving more AFC opponents for a turnaround. Still, there are very real scenarios where the Broncos only miss the playoffs because they lost to Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets, which would sting particularly hard.
Let’s talk specifics. What, precisely, does Denver need to do to punch their playoff ticket? I’m glad you asked.
If Denver goes 1-6 or 0-7 from this point out, they are mathematically eliminated. Protip: try to win some football games, Denver!
If Denver goes 2-5, they are almost certainly eliminated as well – we’re talking less than a 1% chance of them making the postseason. Mathematically, they could still worm their way into the sixth or seventh seed, but this is beyond the realms of even the most unlikely combinations. Try to win more than two games.
Denver’s in the same boat if they go 3-4 the rest of the way, except now they could theoretically get anything between the second and seventh seeds. Yes, the 8-9 Broncos could still win the AFC West.
Things start to get realistic once you put Denver at 4-3. They’d still be somewhere between 85-90% to miss the playoffs, just because there are so many teams in play at the moment, but the seventh seed does begin to become something worth dreaming about. This is where Denver’s ace in the hole starts coming into play – their strength of victory. They’re not going to have sole possession of a playoff spot at 9-8, and their 6-6 conference record, in the best case, is not going to knock anyone out either, though it may keep them ahead of a straggler or two. Instead, Denver might somewhat easily find themselves atop a conga line at 9-8 thanks to picking up lots of points for beating the Chiefs.
Current AFC Strength of Victory Standings:
- Jets (4-6): .542
- Ravens (8-3): .516
- Chiefs (7-3): .500
- Browns (7-3): .500
- Steelers (6-4): .500
- Broncos (5-5): .492
- Bengals (5-5): .484
- Jaguars (7-3): .481
- Texans (6-4): .479
- Patriots (2-8): .476
- Bills (6-5): .437
- Titans (3-7): .433
- Chargers (4-6): .426
- Colts (5-5): .404
- Raiders (5-6): .373
- Dolphins (7-3): .337
The Broncos’ SoV strength is more a high floor than a high ceiling; if all AFC teams won all their remaining games would only tie for 12th in strength of victory. But in multi-team ties where head-to-head record and common games really can’t come into play, Denver has an ace up their sleeve.
If things get realistic at 4-3, they get downright optimistic at 5-2. Now, they’d be somewhere between 65 and 70% likely to make the postseason. We’re probably talking seventh seed or out, but the sixth, fifth and even fourth seeds aren’t crazy at 10-7. This is probably Denver’s most likely path to the playoffs now, though they do have to be careful. Let’s say, for instance, they drop road games to the Texans and Lions, the two toughest games on the schedule. Well, your 10-7 Broncos might not win the tiebreaker against the 10-7 Colts thanks to the common games tiebreaker. It’d be that Week 1 loss to the Raiders that’s the culprit here; a loss that quite frequently ends up as a thorn in Denver’s side. That usually manifests itself with difficulties slipping free of the Raiders or Chargers in the divisional tiebreakers, but one way or another, Josh McDaniels could end up hurting the Broncos once again.
If the Broncos go 6-1, now they’re somewhere in the neighborhood of 99% to make the postseason. At this point, we’re probably talking fifth or sixth seed, though #3, #4 and #7 are all feasible (and the other seeds are still mathematically possible). It helps that to get there, Denver would have to beat at least one of Cleveland or Houston, potential wildcard thorns in their side. And, when you’re talking 11 wins, you’re getting into the area of more one-on-one ties rather than cutting through massive groups, so head-to-head wins over Cleveland or Houston or Buffalo start to really be valuable.
And, of course, if the Broncos go 7-0, they’re…still not mathematically guaranteed a playoff spot. Missing out would be almost impossible – you’d need the Chiefs to win the division, likely the Bills to win the AFC East, and then a massive tie at 12-5 involving the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Dolphins. It’s not worth worrying about, but it is possible.
The 12-5 Broncos would most likely be the #5 seed, though any of the top three seeds seem feasible, as does the sixth seed. Yes, if the Broncos run the table, they could still semi-realistically earn home field advantage in the AFC. It would require the Chiefs, Ravens and Dolphins to all sputter down the stretch, but it’s far more likely than that “miss the playoffs” thing.
It’s not a situation anyone thought Denver would be in when they were sitting at 1-5. But this year’s Zombie team is punching strong, and is going to be a pain for everyone else down the stretch.
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