Week 15 Playoff Update: A Massive Pileup with Four Weeks to Go

Four weeks left, and only one team qualified for the playoffs? Only two teams mathematically eliminated? Nine teams in each conference with one game of the playoff cutoff line? The single most complicated week of clinching/elimination scenarios in at least the past five years?  Yes, we’re in for a heck of a finish to the season, as it’s very rare for this many teams to be alive with a puncher’s chance with just a month to go in the season.

Week 15 will hopefully bring us some clarity in the wild card races, with Packers-Buccaneers, Bengals-Vikings and especially Colts-Steelers helping to separate some wheat from chaff.  Three games should help get some clarity at the top of the conferences, with the Ravens-Jaguars, Seahawks-Eagles and, yes, 49ers-Cardinals set to sort things out.  And we’ll get to all those.

But first, let’s talk about the two races that are winding up – the two that are closest to being fully decided.

AFC East

With the Jets and Patriots both eliminated from the division, there are only seven relevant games remaining in the race for the AFC East – four each for the Dolphins and Bills, with their game in Week 18 making up the difference.

This was looking like a walkover…until the Dolphins flopped on Monday night against the Titans.  So don’t look now, but the door has cracked open ever-so-slightly for a Bills comeback.  Excluding ties, there are 128 possible outcomes left in the AFC East – and the Bills win 22 of them.

That would have been six had Miami beaten Tennessee; a three-game lead with four to play would have been very difficult for Buffalo to catch, even with the head-to-head win back in Week 4.  But now things are beginning to get intriguing.  FTN gives the Dolphins an 82.5% chance to win the division, which is just about equal to random chance from here on out; they have the Bills and Dolphins basically tied in DVOA, but with Miami having the tougher schedule from here on out.  So, game on.

Every scenario where the Bills win the division involves a Week 18 win over Miami; that’s non-negotiable at this point.  If the Dolphins get revenge and beat Buffalo in the final game of the year, that’s their fourth division win; Buffalo’s opening night horror against the Jets would end up keeping them out.  But chalk that one up for Buffalo, and now you have the Bills one game back with the tiebreaker locked up? Things get spicy, there.

Ultimately, I think the Bills end up short, if for no other reason than their variance. Trusting Buffalo to play as well as they are capable of playing for a month straight?  That’s a tough ask for a team that has laid some real eggs over the back half of the season.  Plus, Miami still gets the Jets this week in what should be a walkover.  Getting Dallas in Miami, rather than in Jerryworld, should help them, too.

Still. It’s a much more realistic possibility that it was 72 hours ago, before the Bills showed they could hang with the Chiefs and the Dolphins showed they couldn’t hang with the Titans. Stay tuned on this one.

NFC West

Well, I suppose this is almost the same.

With the Seahawks and Cardinals both eliminated for the division, there are only seven relevant games remaining in the race for the NFC West – four each for the 49ers and Rams, with their game in Week 18 making up the difference.

This was looking like a walkover.  It still is looking like a walkover.

Yup, that’s one, poor, solitary entry for the Rams – win out and have the 49ers lose out, and you win the division at 10-7. This is solely, mind you, because the Rams would have swept the Seahawks and Cardinals, while the 49ers’ losing out scenario has Kyler Murray sniping them this week. Sean McVay should pay for his next battlepass if that happens.

The Rams are still alive in the wildcard race, which is great for them.  But the 49ers should clinch the division at about 7:05 on Sunday, as beating Arizona clinches them a top-three seed. And then we won’t have to run this graphic again.

NFC #1 Seed

The 49ers aren’t worrying about the division anymore, anyway. With their win over Seattle and the Eagles’ loss to Dallas, they’ve moved into first place in the conference and are looking to stay there.  Head-to-head wins over Philadelphia and Dallas help their cause, as they win any tiebreaker…

…So long as it’s with the two of them. Detroit may be floundering at the moment, but they’re just a game back and don’t play the 49ers or Eagles. If they can sneak their way into the tiebreak, they’ll knock off San Francisco’s head-to-head advantage and give Dallas or especially Philadelphia the chance to win this thing on conference record.

FTN doesn’t buy Detroit’s chances.  Which is fair.  They give the Lions just a 0.6% chance of winning the top seed in the NFC; they may still be ahead of the Eagles in total DVOA, but they’ve dropped below them in weighted DVOA and continue to plummet.  Plus, they have a harder schedule than either the Eagles or 49ers, with the Cowboys, Broncos and Vikings (twice!) on their schedule down the stretch. Compare that to Philadelphia, whose last serious challenge should come this weak against Seattle. Yes, I’m enjoying Tommy DeVito as much as the next person, but it’s one thing to upset the young Packers; it’s another to stop the Eagles.  Any Given Sunday and all, but Philadelphia should finish the tough portion of their schedule this week.

That’s why FTN still gives them a 17.7% chance of winning the top seed, even though they’re not even in first place in the division at the moment.  A Giants-Cardinals-Giants finish is as smooth a landing as you can hope for.  Dallas is down to just 7.6%, with three tough draws in Buffalo, Miami and Detroit over the next three weeks.  And then San Francisco, who is running away in the advanced metrics, is up to 74.1%.  It’s a three-horse race, and one of them is beginning to make like Secretariat.

Honestly, part of the problem the Eagles and Cowboys have is that the 49ers’ schedule isn’t really that tough, either. Baltimore on Christmas Day should be a great game, but a Rams-Commanders-Cardinals trifecta is two teams out of the playoff picture and one scrapping for their life.  It’s harder than the Eagles, for sure, but there’s not a lot there to challenge the 49ers with the form they’ve been showing.  And if they win those three games, then they would have to lose to the Ravens and have either the Cowboys or Eagles run the table to catch them; Detroit wouldn’t be able to help out.  It’s not over, per se, but the Cowboys and Eagles really can not afford another loss if they want to catch San Francisco. And with Dallas playing the Bills (who just beat the Chiefs!) and the Eagles playing the Seahawks (who took Dallas to the wire two weeks ago!), winning this week is far from guaranteed, much less winning out.

NFC Wildcard

And speaking of the Seahawks, how thankful were they (and the Rams, for that matter) that Green Bay blew it against the Giants on Monday?  The two 6-7 NFC West teams are going to struggle against the Vikings or Packers in tiebreaker scenarios, so every loss helps out.

At the moment, you have the Vikings a game ahead of the pack, sitting at 7-6 and in the sixth seed.  Then, you have the knot at 6-7, with the Packers 4-4 conference record and head-to-head win over the Rams having them over, in order, the Rams, Seahawks, Falcons and Saints.  And then, just a game back, you have the Giants and Bears lurking after big upset victories in Week 14.  It’s a madhouse, I tell you.

Here are those teams’ odds to make the playoffs, per FTN:

• Vikings: 69.6%
• Packers: 46.8%
• Rams: 28.8%
• Seahawks: 28.6%
• Falcons: 31.1% (only 5.8% wildcard)
• Saints: 37.0% (only 6.7% wildcard)
• Giants: 1.4%
• Bears: 6.2%

Cross out the Giants and Bears; there’s just too many teams between them and the playoffs to give them much of a chance. It’s not so much not getting the wins they need, but the chance of everyone ahead of them tumbling down, that’s their problem.

I do think, when it’s all said and done, the Vikings, Packers, Rams and Seahawks will all have nine wins.  I like the Rams to beat everyone on their schedule but the 49ers.  I think the Seahawks, if Geno is healthy, will give the Eagles all they can handle this week, and knock off Pittsburgh and Arizona over the last two weeks of the year.  I think the Packers will bounce back from this week’s disappointment to beat the Bucs, Panthers and Bears.  But they’ll lose to the Vikings, who will also split with Detroit.  That gets everyone to 9-8.

In that exact scenario, the Vikings and Packers are your sixth and seventh seeds, just as they currently stand.  Minnesota would have swept Green Bay, and their 8-4 conference record would beat either NFC West team. Green Bay is a little more fragile.  They’d lose a tiebreaker against Seattle on common opponents, with this loss against DeVito being the one that knocked them out.  But Seattle was swept by the Rams, and the Packers beat Los Angeles in Week 9, so they’d get through on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Cutting it perhaps a little too close, but Love wins in the end.

AFC Top Seed

This looked a lot more interesting before Monday night.

Baltimore now has a full game lead on the rest of the conference, and two games on everyone other than the Dolphins.  Both Baltimore and Miami still control their fate for the top seed, thanks to their New Year’s Eve game in Week 17, but Miami threw away their margin for error on Monday.

It’s not quite as big as a lead as San Francisco, but it’s sizeable. FTN gives Baltimore a 62.2% chance of winning the top seed.  Then it’s Miami at 16.5% — and then Kansas City at 15.0%.  The Chiefs are still third in DVOA despite their high-profile mistakes recently. They still have wins over Miami and Jacksonville.  And they still have the best conference record in the AFC at 6-2. These are all significant assets if you’re trying to make up a two-game deficit.  The Jaguars at 3.9% and the Browns at 2.3% round out your borderline contenders.

The Ravens still have three fairly tough games on their schedule – road trips to Jacksonville and San Francisco and a home game against Miami. And don’t count out Pittsburgh, who may be playing for their playoff lives in Week 18. That schedule, the toughest remaining in the league, helps make up for the fact that the Ravens have a significant lead on their rivals.  However, I think that all three of the other division leaders losing last week has put this firmly into Baltimore’s corner; they should be able to win all three of their AFC games remaining, which would be enough to win the bye week regardless of what happens against San Francisco.

Other AFC Division Races

Baltimore-Jacksonville is also a little interesting because those divisions aren’t technically decided yet. While the AFC South and especially AFC North races take a backseat to the conference title race, the loser of this one will be in some trouble.

Currently, FTN gives the Ravens a 90.5% chance of winning the North, with Cleveland at 8.2% and Pittsburgh at 1.3%; the Browning Bengals aren’t eliminated yet but are just realistically too far back.  This should go to Baltimore even with a loss, but Cleveland will keep on riffing through quarterbacks until it finds one that will stick. And there’d be a bit of irony in Joe Flacco being the one to knock the Ravens out of the divisional title, would there not?

The South is where the real action is, though losses by Indy AND Houston last week blew a chance to gain ground on Jacksonville.  Right now, the Jaguars have a 79.1% chance to win the division, with Houston at 10.7%, Indianapolis at 10.1% and Tennessee at 0.2% and just happy to be here.  The winner of Indianapolis-Houston in Week 18 should get to 10 wins, so Jacksonville might find themselves in a must-win game in Week 18, on the road at Tennessee should they lose this week.  You’d still favor the Jags to win the division when all is said and done, but stay tuned…

About The Author