Week 16 Playoff Update: 49ers and Ravens, One v. One
10 min read
49ers QB Brock Purdy
Week 16 brings with it our first significant playoff scenarios. You did not need an expert in tiebreakers to know that the Eagles or Cowboys were going to eventually make the postseason, or that the Panthers and Patriots were going to stay home. These were foregone conclusions, and when they finally happened, it was simply a reflection of reality rather than some grand revelation.
We’re late enough in the year, however, that some less firm scenarios are beginning to come to pass. This week alone, we could see:
- The Baltimore Ravens clinch the AFC North title (current odds, per DVOA: 93.3%)
- The Detroit Lions clinch the NFC North title (93.2%)
- The Cleveland Browns clinch a playoff berth (88.2%)
- The San Francisco 49ers clinch the top seed in the NFC (85.2% before the Eagles lost on Monday)
- The Miami Dolphins clinch the AFC East title (76.5%)
So whereas up to now, the playoff picture has mostly just been setting the way everyone expected, we can finally start answering some of the major questions this week.
It’s a week really highlighted by two games. The division leaders in the AFC and NFC South go head to head, with the 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to the 7-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those are the two divisions with the least certainty in them; we’ve got a three-way tie at 8-6 in the AFC South and a two-way tie at 7-7 in the NFC South with the Falcons just one game behind. The loser of this one will likely not be in first place at the end of the week, which matters with just three weeks to go.
But no, the main event, on Christmas itself, is the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers hosting the 11-3 Baltimore Ravens. The top two teams in the league, by leaps and bounds. Two teams putting up historic numbers, to boot.
The winner could well decide the MVP, with both Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson building cases for themselves this season. But, more immediately important from our point of view, it could end the race for the top seed in the NFC.
NFC #1 Seed
Because of the Eagles’ loss on Monday night, the 49ers have a clinching path in the NFC this week. A win, plus losses by each of the Eagles, Cowboys and Lions, and the 49ers have the bye week sewn up with two weeks to go.
This is, of course, very unlikely to happen this week. The Eagles are heavy favorites over the Giants; their cakewalk of a schedule is why this is still a competitive race despite San Francisco’s one-game lead in the conference and all the tiebreakers you can shake a stick at. You could bet the four games as a parlay at about +3000, if you were so inclined. The 49ers will likely have to wait another week before finalizing their seeding.
Of course, the great thing for them is they can wait another week. Any two victories the rest of the way clinches the top seed for the 49ers — they don’t need to beat the Ravens, they can just beat the Commanders and Rams and be on their way, even if the Eagles do roll through the Giants-Cardinals-Giants finish unscathed. Sunday’s game, then, is more about showing once more on a national stage that they are the team to beat — not just in the NFC, but period. I like their chances.
A 49ers victory would throw the AFC into a bit of disarray, too. At the moment, the Ravens and Dolphins both control their fate for the bye week in the AFC, but that’s only if they win out. And while Miami has no easy matchup against the Cowboys this week, the Ravens are going on the road to face a buzzsaw. It may be Lamar Jackson’s single most impressive victory if he pulls this one off; the second-shiniest feather in his cap next to his MVP. The 49ers have historically struggled some with rushing quarterbacks, and Jackson, if he’s in his top form, could gouge a San Francisco defense that doesn’t always tackle with the greatest of ease. It would be a notable upset, however.
Here are the relevant odds for the top seed in the AFC, per FTN:
- Ravens: 67.6%
- Dolphins: 20.7%
- Chiefs 10.3%
Don’t sleep on the Chiefs slipping their way back into this one. They have the head-to-head win over Miami and a better conference record than Baltimore. They get to play the Raiders while Miami and Baltimore slug it out with the tops the NFC has to offer. In fact, Miami and Baltimore have the hardest two remaining schedules in the NFL by DVOA, in part because they have to play each other. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are down at 22, with the Raiders and Chargers bookending a challenging game against Cincinnati. Kansas City probably has to win out to have any real chance at poaching the top seed. But don’t put it past them.
Southern Cooking
Seven divisions have fewer eight relevant games remaining, and so can fit nicely on a little chart; we’ll show all of them here at the end of the article. The one exception is the AFC South, where the 8-6 Jaguars are done playing the Texans and Colts, and so there are eight games remaining. 256 possible combinations, ignoring ties, is a bit much for a graphic, so we’ll tackle their scenarios in detail next week.
By that point, it’s possible we’ll know we’re talking about the fourth seed in the AFC. The South, as a division, can get locked into #4 if the Buccaneers beat the Jaguars, the Falcons beat the Colts, the Browns beat the Texans, the Chiefs beat the Raiders, and the Dolphins beat the Cowboys. There’s a couple trickier matchups here and there, but with Jacksonville spiraling in recent weeks, it does seem nearly assured that the winner of this division is going to have to host the five-seed.
The current odds, per DVOA:
- Jaguars: 56.3%
- Colts: 22.8%
- Texans: 20.9%
Jacksonville’s odds keep falling, because they keep losing. It doesn’t really matter that they played the Browns and Bengals tight, because they ended up with a loss at the end, and they simply could not find the end zone against Baltimore last week. That’s a serious problem, not just because they aren’t wins, but because the Browns and Bengals are exactly who Jacksonville might be matched up against in the wildcard race if they lose out! This has been a nightmare month for the Jaguars. Fortunately, this is their last serious challenge of the regular season, as they finish with the Panthers and Titans, but we’ve seen Jacksonville come up short against this level of competition before — and recently, too.
For the record, here is the current AFC wildcard picture and odds for teams NOT named the Ravens, Dolphins or Chiefs:
- Cleveland: 81.5% (+6.7% to win the AFC North)
- Jacksonville: 16.6% (+56.3% to win the AFC South)
- Houston: 43.5% (+20.9% to win the AFC South)
- Indianapolis: 37.8% (+22.8% to win the AFC South)
- Buffalo: 30.2% (+23.5% to win the AFC East)
- Cincinnati: 30.5%
- Denver: 24.5%
The Jags do have the sweep of the Colts and the win over the Bills in their back pocket, so that’s not nothing should they fall out of the divisional race. But a win against Tampa Bay would ease a lot of minds in Duval.
As for the Buccaneers and the NFC South? It’s time for a graphic.
As it stands, the Buccaneers win 70 of the 128 remaining scenarios (ignoring ties), or 54.7%. With a win over Jacksonville, that jumps to 43 of 64, or 67.2%. A loss knocks them down to 27, or 42.2%. That’s a significant chunk of equity to lose in a cross-conference matchup, but that’s just how tight this race is.
The Saints currently have 43 scenarios (33.6%), while the Falcons have the remaining 15 (11.8%).
Atlanta can make this much clearer this week; you can see from the graphic that they’re out if they lose to Indianapolis and the Saints beat the Rams. That would put the best-case scenario for the Falcons a three-way tie with Tampa and New Orleans at 8-9, and while their sweep over the Saints would get them past the first hurdle, they’d end up losing to the Buccaneers on the common games tiebreaker, finishing 6-6 to Tampa Bay’s 7-5. That loss to the Panthers last week wasn’t only embarrassing; it was a massive blow to Atlanta’s playoff hopes.
Let’s quickly run through the remaining five divisions we haven’t talked about, in descending order of intrigue.
NFC East
No one controls their own face in the NFC East, a truly bizarre state of affairs for something with three weeks to go.
If both the Eagles and Cowboys win out, both of them will be 13-4. They’ll have identical 5-1 division records and 9-3 conference records, and identical common games marks, as well. That would send us tumbling to strength of victory, so they’d be at the mercy of the rest of the league! That could decide who has to travel to San Francisco in the divisional round; that’s a lot to be decided by schedule strength.
This stops being a problem if the Cowboys lose to Miami this weekend; that would put an imbalance in the conference records and ensure any and all ties were decided by divisional or conference records. But let’s look real quick at what happens if both teams do win out.
At the moment, the Eagles have the edge in strength of victory, .493 to .379. That gap will close simply because of who is left on the schedule, however; the Cardinals and Giants aren’t exactly threatening to go on a tear. The Eagles would fall to .440; the Cowboys would rise to .415. That’s still not enough in and of itself to clear the gap, however; the Cowboys would need more help.
The relevant teams — the teams one team has beaten and other hasn’t — would be Arizona, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay for the Eagles, and Carolina, Detroit, LA Chargers, NY Jets and Seattle for Dallas. So you can see the scope of the problem. Dallas’ quintet would need five more wins than Philadelphia’s the rest of the way, with only 14 games left unaccounted for. That’s not a surefire conclusion for the Eagles yet by any stretch of the imagination — but it’s also not something the Cowboys would really like to have to deal with.
AFC East
The Dolphins control 27 of the remaining 32 scenarios (84.4%). They clinch the AFC East this week if they beat Dallas and Buffalo loses to the Chargers; they would also clinch if they beat the Bills in Week 18 no matter what happens over the next two weeks.
When the Bills are in full form, they’re the team nobody wants to play; they’re probably, at worst, the third-best team in the AFC and they’ve got a strong argument for second considering they, y’know, already beat the Dolphins. The problem is, the Bills have been incredibly inconsistent this season, and asking them to win what will likely be seven more games in a row to win the Super Bowl feels like a tall ask. That being said, an AFC East championship game between the Dolphins and the Bills, with the bye week in the conference possibly also being on the line, seems like the ideal Week 18 flex, doesn’t it?
AFC North
The Ravens control 57 of the 64 remaining scenarios (89.1%). They clinch the division this week if they beat the 49ers and the Browns lose to the Texans, who may be getting C.J. Stroud back.
Five of the seven Browns scenarios remaining are in the most likely quarter of the graphs — the inverse of the elimination scenario; the one where the Browns win and the Ravens lose. It’s a shame for Cleveland that the common game win over San Francisco would never be relevant, but I suppose they would be satisfied with simply winning the conference title anyway. Cleveland can also clinch at least a wildcard berth this week, though it needs a win and substantial chunk of help in the confusing AFC.
AFC West
Yes, this is, amazingly, still a three-way race, even if the Chiefs have lapped everyone else. Kansas City controls 118 of the 128 remaining scenarios (92.2%). The Broncos have six (4.7%) and the Raiders, amazingly enough, still have four (3.1%). A win over the Raiders on Christmas Day clinches the AFC West for Kansas City — and eliminates the Raiders from the playoffs entirely, while were at it, though the Broncos would still have wildcard hopes.
The Broncos would also be eliminated if they lost to the Chargers or Raiders, or if the Chiefs beat the Chargers in Week 18. The Raiders would need to win out and have Kansas City lose out which, you know, good luck with that. But hey, that’s two pests the Chiefs have to deal with, which makes the AFC West at least slightly more interesting than…
NFC North
The Lions didn’t clinch a playoff berth this week because of the Eagles’ loss to Seattle. They’ll get a bigger prize any minute now in the North. The next Lions win, or the next Vikings loss, hands the title to Detroit. It’s a title they’ve never won — they last won the NFC Central, currently busy no longer existing. It’s been an embarrassing few decades for Detroit, but they have a chance to clear some historical baggage this weekend. Or next weekend. Or the weekend after…you know, they just have a lot of chances; let’s leave it at that.
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